• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Daniels Trading

Independent. Objective. Reliable.

Top Navigation

  • Open an Account
  • Request Trading Demo
  • 1.800.800.3840
  • Sign Up
  • Log in

Primary Navigation Menu

  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Services
    • Careers
    • Risk Disclosure
  • Trade
    • Broker-Assisted
    • Self-Directed / Online
  • Hedge
    • DanielsAg Mobile App
    • Ag Marketing Plan
    • WASDE Analysis
    • Grain Resources
    • Livestock / Dairy Resources
    • Hedging Videos
  • Invest
    • Automated Strategies
    • Managed Futures
  • Advisories
    • GENERAL / FUNDAMENTAL
      • DT Newsletter
      • Insider Market Advisory
      • Capture the Move
      • Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
    • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
      • The Cullen Outlook
      • Market Dimensions Advisory Room
      • Rath Overlay
      • Swing Trader’s Insight
      • Trade Spotlight
    • AG MARKETING
      • Cattleman’s Advisory
      • The Swine Times
      • Technical Ag Knowledge
      • This Week in Grain
      • Turner’s Take Ag Marketing
    • THIRD-PARTY RESOURCES
      • CFRN
      • Market Action Scanner
      • Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI)
      • OptionWorks®
      • TASMarketProfile.com
  • Education
    • CME Group Resource Center
    • Guides
    • Frequently Asked Questions
    • Order Entry Handbook
    • Webinars
  • Blog
    • Futures 101
    • Ag Marketing
    • Tips & Strategies
    • Trading Advisories
  • Resources
    • Trading Software
    • Quotes and Charts
    • Futures Calendars
    • Contract Specifications
    • Margin Requirements
    • Futures Calculator
  • Accounts
    • GAIN Capital Futures
    • R.J. O’Brien
  • Contact
Home / Futures Blog / This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 6/26-6/30 Weekly Wrap

This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 6/26-6/30 Weekly Wrap

June 30, 2017 by John Payne

This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)Good morning friends!

Corn (N17) 370’0  +10’2

Soybeans (N17) 952’4  +27’6

Chi Wheat (N17)  940’2  +24’6

KC Wheat  (N17) 509’6   +29’2

Cotton (Z17)  68.69   +1.45

 


Hello friends!

End of the week, end of the quarter, end of the half…MAYBE the end of the bear grain market from 2014 -2016??? Tough call, way too early to tell but we are seeing some fantastic price action in both Ag and financial markets to support the belief something is changing.

Firstly, the report today.  My one word takeaways are as follows.  Corn- neutral Beans-bullish  Wheat-neutral (winter) bullish (spring)   Cotton- neutral

The wheat will get the headlines.  Spring wheat acreage came in below expectations amidst the disaster of a growing season.  Overall wheat acreage shrunk from March and that was one of the smallest in history. We are in the midst of the smallest wheat crop since 1919. The grain stocks is another story though.  Current grain stocks came in above expectations near 1.2 billion bushels.  That is one hell of a savings account to help make it through tough years and shouldn’t require much in the way of an acreage push next year (except HRS). I think the move in KC wheat has more in it, but if we get July above 6.00 (it sits at 5.65) then expect more wheat acres next year.

Corn bulls had little to hang their hat on even with good price action post report.  Acreage was higher as was grain stocks.  WASDE in a couple of weeks should show a bloated world balance sheet.  Still we rally, as corn is a function of weather and wheat prices right now.  I think 420 Dec is definitely in the cards, but anyone pushing prices higher than 450 are betting on a weather hurting yields massively in the coming weeks, it won’t happen organically.

Soybean bulls are the winners of the day in my opinion as volatility in that market awoke after the smaller than expected grain stocks number.  Bears have been insistent on smaller domestic usage but the stocks refuted that. Disappearance of stocks between March and May was 775 million, up almost 20% from the year prior. Demand is strong and the funds are short, Yes acreage is higher which is bearish, but over the short term let the weather be your guide. Watch out if we get any semblance of a weather problem, we could be at 10.50 in a NY minute.  If you bought calls on my rec earlier in the week, “good on ya”.

Cotton had good enough news to break its recent down streak over the last month. I was thinking we would see a slight jump in acreage from 12.2 to closer to 12.5, but we saw the opposite.  Acreage fell to just slightly, but that was enough to get the market covering shorts to end the Q.  I am still not convinced we don’t see 66 one more time, but for now the Texas conditions will dictate and the trend for ratings in the Lone Star state is down.

Below are monthly continuous charts for corn, beans, wheat and cotton along with COT updates from today. God bless anyone who is short soybeans right now, COT as of Tuesday had speculators record short.  Corn remains really short as well (100 k+ contracts) after being almost even a couple of weeks ago.  Wheat is probably now net long while cotton specs are at their shortest level in a year.

Markets are open on Monday, but will close early.  We will then remain closed through Tuesday and reopen Wednesday morning.  Until then, have a great weekend.

 

 

 

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: This Week In Grain

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

Primary Sidebar

Get Blog Updates

Subscribe to our blog and receive a daily email with information on market insights, trading tips & strategies.

Trustpilot

Footer

Trustpilot

Contact Us

Daniels Trading
100 South Wacker Drive, Suite 1225
Chicago, IL 60606
+1.312.706.7600 Local / Int'l
+1.800.800.3840 Toll-Free
+1.312.706.7605 Fax

Connect with Us

Site Navigation

  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • About Us
  • Customer Reviews
  • Contact Us
  • Futures Blog
  • Open a Futures Trading Account
  • Media Resources
  • Fund Your Account
  • Legal Notices

Copyright © 2019 · Daniels Trading. All rights reserved.

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

  • Risk Disclosure
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Back to top