June 26, 2017
This week we will touch briefly on what happened in the pork product market, the live hog market and how this will likely play out this week.
There is also a USDA Hog & pig report that will be out on Thursday 6/29, and this could add a few wrinkles as well.
Here is a summary of Pork Carcass cutout and live hog prices for week ending 6/23.
*Product Price on Monday 6/19 Price as of Friday 6/23/17 Change
Loin 96.57 93.64 (2.93)
Butt 106.38 106.53 .15
Picnic 65.81 68.36 2.55
Rib 150.98 153.63 (2.65)
Ham 72.77 71.79 .98
Belly 173.77 187.90 14.13
Carcass Cutout $96.57 $101.15 4.58
Base Price $85.44 $85.85 1.41
*National Live Price $64.65 $67.20 2.55
As you can see, the carcass value gained $4.58 while the live hog price gained $2.55.
Now, lets look at the same time frame and compare what the first three live hog futures contracts did this past week.
Live Hog Contract Monday’s Close Friday Close Net Change for the week
July Hogs 83.90 85.30 1.40
August Hogs 81.48 78.65 (2.83)
October Hogs 69.38 68.20 (1.18)
The July hogs did not narrow the basis to the cash hog market by much, but as we draw closer to expiration, the basis will narrow. In our opinion, the futures will gain modestly on the cash. At the same time, the cash prices, with a short slaughter week going into the Fourth of July holiday, will be under pressure. Time will tell.
Looking into this week
- Despite an increase in the product market, our analysis remains the same. The product market, with maybe the exception of bellies and hams, will top out. You are beginning to see this starting with the loins and the ribs. For the first time in the past three weeks, trimmings are becoming toppy, and as the trimming market goes down, the meat cost of boneless hams and loins will go up. As these cuts increase in price, they will meet resistance from the retailer.
- There will be days going into the holiday that prices may be mixed. After the Fourth, the real product pressure will begin as we get back to five full slaughter days.
- While five full slaughter days is likely to push the product lower, it will have the opposite effect on the price of live hogs. Packers will not be hesitant to pay a half to a dollar higher, if needed, to fill their processing schedule.
- The packer margins are still unusually good for this time of year. This is important to remember.
- Bellies exceeded our $1.80 estimate last week and closed out at $187.90 and stand a decent chance of going to $2.00. This could add another $1.50 to the cutout, but more importantly, they will help offset some of the price losses from the retail cuts.
How do we trade this?
- Buy LHQ, as they are at too big of a discount given the cash market ($12.00).
- Buy LHQ/LHV August/October hog spreads at $10.50 or better. The risk is about $8.00, but the spread could go to $13.00 or more. Don’t get attached to this spread, as it’s just a trade, not a campaign. If you get to 150-200 points, take the profit.
- On sharp rallies, sell October hogs lightly, as we still have a lot of summer left to go. Just be patient.
- Do not forget that there is a pig crop report at the end of the month. It will probably be bearish, but find someone who doesn’t know that. The fact that there are more hogs coming this fall is not exactly a revelation, and we have to ask ourselves how much of that is already built into the deferred live hog contract prices.
- Watch the weather and temperatures. If you get cooling temperatures, you could see a quick drop in the live price.
*USDA National Hog and Pork summary
Try DT Newsletter – for 30 Days
DT Newsletter – Trial - The DT Newsletter delivers featured commodity futures market information directly to your inbox. Published weekly, it is designed to help futures traders of all levels accomplish their trading goals.
DT Newsletter – includes access to premium web content.
DT Newsletter – trial lasts 30 days.
Hedging Cattle in the Summer 2017: A Paradise of Risk
Hedging Cattle is risky business in Summer 2017 thanks to recent weather events and high cash demand. Senior Broker and Market Analyst John Payne brings his expert knowledge of livestock futures to the public with this informative report.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.