Corn (N17) 366’4 -3’6
Soybeans (N17) 955’4 -1’6
Chi Wheat (K17) 431’6 +’4
KC Wheat (N17) 436’6 +3’0
Cotton (Z17) 74.55 +.25
In honor of the end of the month and the rain which keeps me inside, I packed this blog with more stuff than ever. Weekly wrap up, weather forecasts, podcasts, monthly charts, COT data…Thank the lord for rain and 2 kids under 2.5 that keep me here. Side note…I used to love the weekends.
Markets were sold early in corn and Chicago wheat as delivery pressure forced the market lower. Bids did come in on the close somewhat as prices levitated back toward the overnight trading ranges. Little news drove the trade. Weather cattle and technical covering appear to be the drivers.
European weather looks to have given percieved falling wheat yields a bit of a break as a trend for wetter weather appears for the next two weeks. We have seen weeks of drier than normal conditions, and the coming change is welcomed.
Too wet and too cold is what the US forecasts show. We all know the freeze story that has been pushing cattle and KC wheat. We should have some semblance of the fallout next week with the crop tour. I would try to avoid getting to excited on Sunday night, that movie has been disappointing the last two weeks. Bulls will be abuzz this afternoon given the near record short positions and negative weather, the market has a lot of this priced in right now in my opinion. Cooler than normal temps are seen in the middle of next week,field work should be halted over the next 5-7 days. Thereafter, however, a more seasonal temp pattern is forecast as the jet stream finally moves northwards. Highs by Wed/Thurs look to reach the 60s and 70s. Longer term models are showing a dry out over early middle May, but the temps should remain cool.
Below are a boatload of charts followed by the COT charts. Please let me know if you have any questions, I dont have time to comment on each one. I sourced them from Futrures source. They are monthly barcharts using the front month rolled during the month prior to delivery. The red line would be the 12 month moving average. As you can see, April was a rather tame month. I want to be bullish in looking at COT data, but these charts have me concerned another move south is in the cards for corn and beans. Could that cotton market be more orderly?
Thanks for reading this week. Ill be back on Monday with more. If you want to listen to 45 minutes of Craig Turner and I talking about the markets, click here. Its a great way to spend a wet, rainy Saturday indoors.
COT DATA, as of Tuesday’s close. These are the net spec positions for corn, beans, wheat (chi), cotton and live cattle. WE HAVE A NEW RECORD SHORT IN WHEAT, CORN AND BEANS ARE NEAR RECORD SHORT. CATTLE AND COTTON ARE JUST OFF RECORD LONGS AS OF TUESDAY. I ASSUME ITS RECORD LONG. THESE MARKETS ARE STRETCHED LIKE A RUBBER BAND RIGHT NOW. BE VERY CAREFUL OF THE SNAPBACK, ITS COMING
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.