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Home / Futures Blog / This Week in Grain- 3/17 AM Commentary

This Week in Grain- 3/17 AM Commentary

March 17, 2017 by John Payne

This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)Good morning friends!

Corn (K17) 365’4  -‘4

Soybeans (K17) 998’2   -3’2

Chi Wheat (K17)  436’0  unch

KC Wheat  (K17) 450’4  +’4

Cotton (Z17)  75.41   -.05


 

CBOT markets were slow in the overnight with tight ranges and little volume.  The markets appear to have lost a lot of enthusiasm for these overnight sessions of late.  There is bound to be a surprise before the end of the month report extravaganza but looking out its difficult to see what breaks CBOT markets out of their ranges over the next nine trading ranges.  While markets are quiet, its a fantastic time to get protection on ahead of the stocks/acreage reports, especially in soybeans.

Cotton markets were not spared the boredom either, as Dec 17 bounces around in the low 75 cent range. Old crop May and July have a little more excitement, but not much.  Exports in cotton were on fire yesterday,which is bullish. Again, I stress caution in the cotton markets. If prices can hang up here through the May delivery, Dec may have a run at 80 once its in the ground.  But the markets have a lot of potential bearish darts coming down the schedule, planted acreage being the big one.  Chinese futures are beginning to fall as the demand at domestic auctions appears to be slowing.  Acreage looks to increase there as well, that said Chinese harvested acreage from last year was at 1960 levels. The funds remain UBER long.  Turner came out with a trade rec yesterday in cotton that I likeif you are a daily subscriber. It was a bear spread, selling July over December at 5.00.  Right now its in the 3’s, Ill keep you updated if it would get filled.

Grain traders need to keep eyes on the cattle markets.  Both LC and FC have been in ramp mode of late, moving prices to 6 month highs.  Cattleman Kirk is screaming for folks to get this penned up, looking at the charts I can see why.  The problem with the technicals though is they completely disregard cash markets, which have been on fire of late.  While I doubt we are seeing redux of 2014, the June and Aug contracts could make a push here before the end of the month when we get a livestock data.  A reversal in cattle on higher numbers (hogs too) would probably be bullish wheat and corn as those trades have been inverted lately. Below is a weekly May feeder chart. I am not a technical guy but the push on the weekly bollenger band is worth noting.

As we close the week, Ill leave you with weekly front month charts for the markets we cover.  Happy St. Patrick’s day!

COTTON

KC WHEAT

CHI WHEAT

SOYBEANS

CORN

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: This Week In Grain

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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