Good morning friends!
Corn (K17) 365’4 -‘4
Soybeans (K17) 998’2 -3’2
Chi Wheat (K17) 436’0 unch
KC Wheat (K17) 450’4 +’4
Cotton (Z17) 75.41 -.05
CBOT markets were slow in the overnight with tight ranges and little volume. The markets appear to have lost a lot of enthusiasm for these overnight sessions of late. There is bound to be a surprise before the end of the month report extravaganza but looking out its difficult to see what breaks CBOT markets out of their ranges over the next nine trading ranges. While markets are quiet, its a fantastic time to get protection on ahead of the stocks/acreage reports, especially in soybeans.
Cotton markets were not spared the boredom either, as Dec 17 bounces around in the low 75 cent range. Old crop May and July have a little more excitement, but not much. Exports in cotton were on fire yesterday,which is bullish. Again, I stress caution in the cotton markets. If prices can hang up here through the May delivery, Dec may have a run at 80 once its in the ground. But the markets have a lot of potential bearish darts coming down the schedule, planted acreage being the big one. Chinese futures are beginning to fall as the demand at domestic auctions appears to be slowing. Acreage looks to increase there as well, that said Chinese harvested acreage from last year was at 1960 levels. The funds remain UBER long. Turner came out with a trade rec yesterday in cotton that I likeif you are a daily subscriber. It was a bear spread, selling July over December at 5.00. Right now its in the 3’s, Ill keep you updated if it would get filled.
Grain traders need to keep eyes on the cattle markets. Both LC and FC have been in ramp mode of late, moving prices to 6 month highs. Cattleman Kirk is screaming for folks to get this penned up, looking at the charts I can see why. The problem with the technicals though is they completely disregard cash markets, which have been on fire of late. While I doubt we are seeing redux of 2014, the June and Aug contracts could make a push here before the end of the month when we get a livestock data. A reversal in cattle on higher numbers (hogs too) would probably be bullish wheat and corn as those trades have been inverted lately. Below is a weekly May feeder chart. I am not a technical guy but the push on the weekly bollenger band is worth noting.
As we close the week, Ill leave you with weekly front month charts for the markets we cover. Happy St. Patrick’s day!
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