This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Wednesday, February 22, 2017.
Good morning –
USDA will give the markets some estimated data to trade beginning tomorrow morning and lasting through Friday at its 2017 “Ag Outlook Forum”. Some estimates below from a Bloomberg survey of analysts and trading companies:
The range of estimates is 89.0 to 92.5. Using the average estimate, assuming a set-back in exports, and production in line with the 20 year trend yield, 2017 ending stocks would come in at 2.003 billion bushels compared to 2.32 billion this year and 1.737 last year.
Producers are encouraged to assess their marketing options prior to this important release and protect a minimum 10-20% (max 40%) of estimated production off the Dec ’17 Board (currently 397’2) using either cash, futures, or options strategies. Contact me to discuss which might be the best tool to use based on your operation and local market! Remember, cash sales are final while futures and options give you the flexibility to protect a floor and set cash price later.
The range of estimates is 86.5 to 92.5. Using the average estimate, assuming a set-back in exports, and production in line with the 20 year trend yield, 2017 ending stocks would come in at 575 million bushels compared to 420 million this year and 197 last year. Remember, the 10-year average is closer to 200 than 600!
Producers are encouraged to protect the premium currently offered in the Nov ’17 futures prior to this important release and protect a minimum of 30-50% estimated 2017 production using a combination of cash, futures, and option strategies.
The range of estimates is 41.3 to 52.0. Using the average estimate and production in line with the 20 year trend yield, 2017 ending stocks would come in at 1.005 billion bushels compared to 1.139 billion this year and 967 million last year.
Producers are encouraged to protect 30-50% of their estimated 2017 production off the July futures or options (currently trading 467’0) and 10% of estimated 2018 production (July ’18 futures currently trading at 515’0).
*Production estimates courtesy of Hightower Research
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