Good morning friends!
Corn (H17) 372’4 -1’6
Soybeans (H17) 1040’4 -4’4
Chi Wheat (H17) 446’6 -2’6
KC Wheat (H17) 461’2 -4’0
Cotton (Z17) 74.34 -.15
CBOT markets were slightly lower last night as Chinese Dalian corn and soymeal fell again last night. There are some bird flu concerns that have traders selling the recent rally.The markets feel tired here as the funds have pushed a lot of chips in over the last few weeks, but the news has not warranted much in the way of follow thru. Cotton markets are on hold as well, as new highs are being sold with little data helping the already record long trade.
NOPA crush numbers will be out today at 11 am central. Expectations are for a crush of 159 Mil Bu with soyoil stocks expanding to 1,520 Mil pounds vs 1,434 Mil pounds in December. US soybean crush has to remain record large to match the USDA annual forecast. The soybean markets have support at the 50 day MA near 1040. If that is taken out, I think we could see some pressure into delivery. If history holds, the best time to sell into the delivery periods is the beginning of the last two weeks of the month prior, which is upon us.
South American weather is mostly productive. A needed drying trend is underway across the lagging harvest areas up North, while the southern part of Brazil will have another chance of rain later this weekend. Showers will start to return to Argentina with wet weather during the 6-10 day period spurring some low lying flooding across the already wet areas that have been flooded out in earlier periods. Warming temps will occur with the rains which will aid most Argy crops.At this point, I see little that will warrant further write downs in Argentinian crops. Current estimates for planted acreage in Argentina sit at around 50 bpa. Brazil looks to be even better, I would be fading rallies over the short term and buying breaks into the first of the month on the CBOT.
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