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Home / Futures Blog / The Rath Overlay (December 23 2016)

The Rath Overlay (December 23 2016)

December 23, 2016 by Drew Rathgeber

This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, December 23, 2016.


In The Markets

Emini S&P – ESH6 (Mar ’17)

Same as last week still losing some momentum having a hard time getting to the 2300.00 level – I’m still looking for a countertrend retracement before any attempt at new highs. This is the 11th day at these levels and obviously the indices are looking for fresh news to take it higher and after 11 trading days nothing really has changed. This week would have been great to be a premium writer.

Gold – GGCZ6 (Feb ‘17)

As I mentioned last week Gold need to hold $1,132.00 and it seems to be holding just by a thread trading at $1,133.00 this morning with tighter daily ranges. Looks to be building a bottom, however I don’t expect any real fireworks till after the New Year starts and more importantly once President Elect Donald Trump is sworn into office January 20th.


Soybeans – ZSF7 (Mar ‘17)

With all the rain in the S. America this week beans sold off sharply let’s see if the $10.04 bu area holds and solidifies before making a long/short play.

Crude Oil WTI – GCLG6 (Feb ’17)

Trending with higher lows for the week looking to re-test $54.00 for a possible break-out? To enter long at these levels would be tricky being at the top of the range $55.00 top then $45.00 bottom and I’m not sure worth the risk. I would look for a better set-up.

T-Bonds – ZBZ6 (Mar ’17)

Short term meaning the hourly chart T-BONDS are trending higher with well-defined higher lows setting up for a re-test the 150-00 level currently sitting at short term overhead resistance.

U.S. Dollar – DX-MZ6 (Mar ’17)

USD made a new weekly high this week trading up to $103.625 however failed to breakout and has struggled in this area coming into the close for 2016. If we don’t receive any fundamental bullish news for the USD I’d expect a pullback.

Open Trades
Working an order in 5 YR TREASURY NOTE (Short).

Currently monitoring Gold, Silver, Crude and Heating Oil for your next trade!

The Week Ahead

  • 12/23 – Regular Close (Most Markets)
  • 12/26 – Holiday Schedule (Globex Closed)
  • 12/28 – Pending Homes Sales Index 10:00AM ET
  • 12/29 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
  • 12/29 – Nat Gas 10:30AM ET
  • 12/29 – EIA Petro Report 11:00AM ET
  • 12/30 – Bond Market Closes 2:00 PM ET

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: The Rath Overlay

About Drew Rathgeber

Drew began his career at one of the nation’s largest physical spot bullion dealers in 2003. From there he made the transition into commodity futures in 2006. Because he has worked on both sides of the fence, ‘Spot’ and ‘Futures’, he has an astute understanding of how the precious metals markets can work for Retail Traders, Hedgers, and Commercials. He can use this knowledge to help investors and traders alike. Drew also has years of experience in electronic software execution, automated systems, hedging, newsletters, options strategies and outright futures contracts. Through his expertise in these areas, he can guide you and answer all of your questions while teaching you how to manage risk.

Today you can see Drew working in many different capacities in the commodity futures markets. You can even see his weekly IMA Live precious metals commentary every Tuesday and Thursday or sign-up for his weekly newsletter, the “Rath Overlay”, which highlights commodity futures markets and possible future events using his time-tested yet simple trading strategy.

Drew grew up near the popular surf beaches of Southern California. Drew is still an avid surfer and snowboarder. Currently his latest craze is United States Masters Swimming (USMS). He is a nationally ranked swimmer and enjoys competitive open water distance swimming.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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