Good morning friends!
Corn 348 -1’6
Soybeans 1018’6 -1’4
Chi Wheat 407’2 -3’0
KC Wheat 413’0 -1’4
Cotton (H17) 71.72 -.57
CBOT markets saw further upside price action that had January soybeans testing their October highs near 10.31 before falling apart and trading negative this morning on profit taking in Europe. December corn gave $3.50 another run before falling with soybeans back into the range from the last session. Wheat markets are a dog, trying their best to stage rallies but just can’t find the momentum from the cash market with delivery periods approaching. Cotton will be looking at its own first notice day starting Wednesday, so be prepared for fireworks the next few days. Looking at the markets from an open interest slant, I would be selling cotton and soybeans, and taking a bullish position in corn on a break into the delivery period. Short term traders may want to look at selling January soybeans using the now formed “double top” on the daily as a stop out point.
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The South American weather forecast is favorable going forward, there is not much to talk about regarding weather. Nothing I see out of SAM justifies the price action on beans. .No extreme heat is noted in the 14 day outlook.
Cash basis levels fell on Monday’s rally on a sign of good movement and slowing demand. Some of the fall in fob basis is due to the rally in freight rates.. Some leftover fund demand is likely in soybeans/meal, but at levels much below Monday.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, I appreciate you as a reader and a client. I hope the holidays treat you and yours wonderfully.
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