Good afternoon friends!
Corn 349’6 +4’2
Soybeans 1020’2 +26’4
Chi Wheat 410’2 +2’2
KC Wheat 414’4 +’6
Cotton (H17) 72.29 -.03
Soybeans took the lead in today’s start to the holiday shortened weak closing up more than 2% as commodities are catching some wind in the proverbial sail. Corn and wheat came along for the ride, as did soybeans and cotton. The story is the energy market, crude leading the way as OPEC talks the market higher. Side note: I could be wrong, maybe this is the time they agree on massive cuts, but I think you gotta fade a crude rally next if prices get into the 50’s ahead of OPEC on the 28th.
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US weekly export inspections came out today at 10:00. % shipped of last years totals remain up 82% for corn from last year, 29% for wheat and 21% for soybeans. In normal years, the export business shifts to SAM from here, the offers in Brazil are cheaper than US offers out in January. The questions guys are asking here, if Brazil has a bumper crop can they meet this kind of demand increase? Jan 17 futures picked almost a dime over November, I think this is risk premium coming in. As someone who is already short, my answer whether or sell new crop or not is the same. Time may not be right now, but I would look to price some new crop beans ahead of the inauguration. The story remains the same, if you are bullish new beans, you should be bullish corn as well.
The rest of the CBOT and cotton were along for the ride. Be ready for a wild couple of weeks. Corn and wheat seasonals have prices sideways through early October. I still think there is a lot of corn that needs to be priced before the Dec delivery. I would be selling March corn on rallies into the 370’s. I remain bearish cotton with sale orders in at 73 cents Dec 17.
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