Good evening friends!
Corn 354’4 -‘4 , +18’0 for the month of October
Soybeans 1013’2 -1’0, +52’4
Chi Wheat 415’2 +6’6, +14’4
KC Wheat 414’6 +3’4, +’6
Cotton 68.85 -1.97, + .75
Pretty slow day with the big “move” coming right on the open of the morning session as beans (X17) pushed above 10.00, corn bounced near 3.50 support and wheat near 4.10. Cotton fell apart as the morning weather models showed less of a concern for W. Texas rains that would affect harvest pace. Cotton feels destined for another test of the 67 area, where major trend and MA support lies. Crude oil remains on the run as OPEC changed their mind (weird!) and the longs are getting out in mass. I expect prices to gain footing in the 46.00 area.
US weekly export inspections for the week ending October 27th were pretty solid for all . We saw a inspections number of 31.2 Mil bushels of corn, 105.4 Mil bushels of soybeans, and 12.0 Mil bushels of wheat. The US soybean export pace is now 2nd largest on record behind the 115 Mil Bu that was shipped out in 2014 up until this point in the year. 2014 was a year following production problems in SAM. Year to date, wheat exports are up 28% from last year,corn exports are up 74% from last year, soybean exports are up 11% from last year. Total weekly US export inspections of all 3 major crops for the last week of October are up 25% from the same week in 2015. The 2016/17 US export pace remains monstrous, which spells good news for lows to remain in the rear view. We also saw bean exports announced to China and another sorghum sale which is very welcome for folks selling Milo off the combine.
Here is some good wheat news: World durum wheat prices might be looking to move as there is a lack of supply in this country and Canada.I have a feeling this is why Minneapolis wheat is doing so well vs the rest of the wheat complex, so some might be priced in. I think this reiterates my stance that if you are long wheat, you need to buy the high protein variety. High pro milling wheat could be tough to come by come spring, even with this massive carryout in country.
Ill be interested to see how corn trades in coming weeks with the 5, 15 and 30 year seasonals all pointing toward a retest of lows before ramping into 2017. Either corn comes up or beans come down in my opinion. IF you are planting heavy soybeans next year, you should be looking at strategies at these levels.
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