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This Week in Grain-10/25 PM Wrap

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This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)Good afternoon friends!

Corn      349’6   +1’4

Soybeans  1001’2  -2’2

Chi Wheat   404’0  +1’4

KC Wheat 412’4   +’4

Cotton 68.49   -.28

 

 

It was a pretty boring session, especially in corn and wheat. It was announced China bought another 516,000 MT of soybeans. Asian demand for soybeans is insatiable. In more normal years, we tend to see our exports announcements peak in the up coming weeks but with lack luster supplies available for export in the SAM markets, forward Asian demand may stay on US shores.

Egypt is back in the wheat market, shopping for more imports. Russia is the lowest offer near 184 per MT, with US offering just below 190. Egypt coming back into the market is very supportive even if the US is not involved.

Gulf corn is the cheapest in the world as is our ethanol.   Brazilian cash ethanol prices this week are up another 11 cents to $2.52, vs. US Gulf ethanol at $1.67. This spread will be an attraction to import Ethanol in Brazil.  This is one reason to be bullish corn, the other is the spread between US corn and Brazil corn at the ports sits at about $20 pert MT, I expect that to remain high in Brazil which will support US prices on breaks.  Being bullish is going to be a slog but I remain willing to buy on breaks in July with ultimate targets near 350 if given the chance.

Cotton was really slow all day, with prices trading south of unchanged since a quick run up on the US open this morning. The Dec-Dec spread is keeping its even money premium which is supportive.  I remain bearish with the hope to hedge more Dec 17 cotton in the 73 cent range.

Go Cubs Go….

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About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)