Good morning friends!
Corn 349’2 +1’0
Soybeans 1000’0 -2’2
Chi Wheat 402’6 +’2
KC Wheat 412’2 +’2
Cotton 69.03 +.26
A very slow overnight trade gives way to very little today in the way of news flow or data that can change the story of the recent negativity in the markets.
Crop Progress out yesterday afternoon had corn reported 61% harvested vs 60% expected. . Soybeans were 76% harvested vs 77% estimated, right on the five-year average, and winter wheat was reported 79% planted. We also got our first conditions report for wheat, moisture conditions out west have everything looking pretty good. We start out at 59% G/E for winter wheat conditions. There is little correlation between where ratings start and where they end. Last year we were at 41% G/E to start the year and we had a record yield.
Soybeans remain a bean oil driven market which is very different from the meal led bull markets of the past decade. It will be very interesting to see how the lagging meal market affects November soybeans into delivery. With a decent long position via the speculator now on the books, I hesitate to think we see much upside price action from here. That said, the news flow probably supports buying breaks, although I am cautious given the 85-88 million bean acres for next year that is getting tossed around.
In cotton, the large spec position is going to weigh on prices in times of quiet. Cotton conditions increased in the G/E category by 1% to 39%, NC conditions improved drastically. Harvest reports show 39% of the cotton crop is harvested vs 39% last year at this time. Texas is 28% compared to 33% 20 year ave. The USDA shows very little in my opinion that will continually push price. It could take some time but I would remain short with targets on Dec 17 in the low 60’s.
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