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Home / Futures Blog / This Week in Grain-10/18 AM Update

This Week in Grain-10/18 AM Update

October 18, 2016 by John Payne


This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)Good morning friends!

Corn      353’0   -1’0

Soybeans  975’6  -2’4

Chi Wheat   419’6  -4’0

KC Wheat 420’6   -2’2

Cotton  70.99   -.20

 


Markets were quiet and slightly higher until I sat in my chair here at 100 S Wacker.  At about 7 am we saw markets dip slightly as wheat falls below 420 and Corn makes a run back below 350, I’ll be very interested to see if Soybeans can hang above 970 and cotton can trade above 71.00 for any extended period of time.  There are bullish fundamental stories in play there, but both markets will lack short covering as a reason to rally.

The Board of Trade here in Chicago has enjoyed 3 days of fund buying, the question is what takes over from here?  The key will be whether values can hold above support with demand still being the story. Supply is not an issue with any of these markets, including cotton.  One more push to the upside offers a sales opportunity for those who need to move product in Q4.I expect markets to be very slow over coming days, with little to trade around other than weather and macro news.

The US dollar is slightly weaker with crude oil slightly higher and world stock markets are mixed awaiting China’s GDP rate and the EU Central Bank Policy update. I was talking about interest rates with a client yesterday, he got me looking at the interest rate charts, specifically the 30 year treasury. Boy, do treasuries look toppy.   Economically, it would not make a ton of sense that prices of commodities would rally on a rise in interest rates.  But from a money flow perspective, that is something that could happen.  There is a boat load of money parked in treasuries right now.  When that money comes out of treasuries, it has to go somewhere.  Equities and commodities alike could catch a run sometime in Q1 of next year if inflation targets would look like they are in play. We have to get through the election first, but I would look for a spark in these markets after we get new leadership in the White House.

treasury

No pod or newsletter this afternoon.  I have to run out of here early.  I was asked to join Tyne Morgan on the Ag Day show. You might be seeing me on TV sometime in the future, hopefully I do not embarrass myself 😉

 

https://media.blubrry.com/twigcast/p/content.blubrry.com/twigcast/TWIGAM1018.mp3

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: This Week In Grain, TWIG Cast

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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