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Home / Futures Blog / This Week in Grain 10/04 AM Update

This Week in Grain 10/04 AM Update

October 4, 2016 by John Payne

Good morning friends!This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)

Corn 346’0 (unch)

Soybeans 966’4 (-6’4)

Chi Wheat 394’0 (-1’4)

KC Wheat 404’2 (-2’0)

Cotton 6877 (+.25)

 

Crop progress numbers from yesterday were solid, coming in just under averages for corn and above average for cotton and soybeans.  Conditions were left unchanged in corn and raised a percentage point in soybeans and cotton.  Hurricane Matthew is bearing down on the SE coast of the US, which could cause some production issues if NC production is touched. I’m hearing it’s a long shot but it’s in the cards at this point.  The Texas crop is 17% harvested with conditions improving there.  I think we get a higher production number in the WASDE and encourage folks to stay short at these levels, looking to short new crop production on another push into the low 70’s.

Winter wheat planting is 44% complete, I am surprised we have not heard more about US acreage.   The longer term forecasts I follow in wheat are showing excessive dryness to be expected over the western growing regions.  I have been saying this for what feels like months, but the wheat market is record short and probably got shorter yesterday.  I remain bullish wheat over the long run. I encourage traders to look at aggressive strategies like a collar in new crop wheat to take advantage of the record low volatility and the relation of the price of wheat to the cost of production. My crystal ball is cloudy when looking at what will make prices move, but based off the chart below a move is coming.

specshort

No reports on the schedule for today from the USDA.  Be on the lookout for private analyst predictions, I think we will see some yield hikes in coming weeks as satellite data is really strong and USDA conditions are improving.  I remain bullish corn and wheat and bearish cotton, I would be selling soybeans on any push toward 9.90 if you need to move them off the combine.

https://media.blubrry.com/twigcast/p/content.blubrry.com/twigcast/TWIG1004AM.mp3

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: This Week In Grain, TWIG Cast

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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