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This Week in Grain 10/04 Afternoon Wrap

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Good afternoon friends!This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)

Corn 348’2 (+2’2)

Soybeans 962’6 (-10’2)

Chi Wheat 394’4 (-1’0)

KC Wheat 401’6 (-5’2)

Cotton 69.68 (+1.16)

 

Markets made their moves early and traded sideways throughout the session. Corn has gotten a tailwind on the back of smaller than expected yields (on the margins) and a liquidation of wheat vs corn and soybean vs corn spreads over the last few sessions. It feels like corn yields are pretty well pegged around 174 by almost everyone, while the herd seems to be increasing soybean yields by the day. Soybeans hanging in above 9.60 is welcome but I wonder how long until we test 940 again. Just a reminder Nov Soybean option expiration is 2 weeks away, I think vol is going to pick up between now and then.  If you plan on holding beans you might want to think about rolling into Dec or Jan now.

Corn going higher is the headline, but the market to watch of late is coming from the wheat complex. The question I am getting that I don’t have an answer to is “what the heck is getting into Minnesota wheat? Check out the price action vs KC of late.

mwekc

 

You could make the case there is protein demand but we should be seeing KC perform in that environment. KC has been the whipping post.  AS you know, I think a move is coming in wheat.  Maybe the fundamentals in Minnesota will lead the way.  Im a buyer of KC at these levels.

kcdc

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About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)