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This Week in Grain – PM review 10/3

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Good afternoon friends!This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)

It was a green day for the 1st day of the quarter in corn, beans and cotton, while the whipping post of the commodity markets (wheat) took it on the chin again.

Corn 346’0 (+9’2)    Soybeans 974’4 (+20’4)

KCW 405’6 (-9’6)   CHI W 395’2 (-6’6)

Cotton 68.42 (+.34)

Corn inspections for the week, were the largest in the last 9. Soybean shipments were up 26 Mil Bu from the previous week. Combined wheat, corn and soybean exports through Sep 29 totaled 122 Mil Bu, vs. 79 Mil during the same week in 2015. To date the US corn shipments are up up 77% from last year; soybeans are up 36%; and all wheat is up 26% .

Regardless of “why” we rallied today, the short corn position will remain problematic until the grain is in hand.  Driving back from Iowa City to Chicago on I-80, there was little harvest action that had occurred. I was seeing more and more fields still standing the more west I went. I consider this price action short covering, not the start of a fundamental story BUT we could easily see a push into the 360’s or even 370’s if conditions would warrant.  I would be more bullish corn if wheat were coming along.

I encourage selling cotton and soybeans on significant rallies to 70.00 (Dec 17) and 9.85 (Nov 16)

Crop progress is out in a few hours, I’ll give a recap on that tomorrow AM.

 

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About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)