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This Week in Grain 10/3- AM Update

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Good morning friends!This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)

Corn 336’6 (unch)

Beans 955’4 (+1’0)

Chi Wheat 400’0 (-2’0)

KC Wheat 413’0 (-2’4)

Cotton 67.55 -.53

 

Overnight price action was slow and volume was low as the trade had little to adjust after the USDA grain stocks report on Friday.  The report was a yawner, but I think did have some bullish linings for corn.  It won’t make headlines because of the massive harvest we are facing, but the Sep 1 stocks were actually smaller than they were a year ago. Keep in mind the carryout projections for a lot of the year had corn stocks above 2 billion, but demand ate away at that number all year.  Looking forward to NEXT YEAR’s Sep 1 number, the trade is kicking around 2.2 billion.  I would bet its smaller than that one year from now.

Harvest pace will be the story this week in corn and beans, while demand is the story in wheat.  Cotton still has quality questions and a HEFTY spec long position again. The COT data has cotton susceptible to pull backs while corn and wheat markets are poised to short cover if news would support.  Last week the bean shorts awoke, we now have a short position establishing itself in soybeans.  I would think beans have another test of the 100 day near 9.90 if the weather would support, but I would skew my trades to the downside in beans for now.

I remain bearish cotton, bullish corn and wheat and neutral/bearish soybeans.

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About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)