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AM TWIG-cast 9/27

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This Week In Grain (T.W.I.G)

Hello friends,

Over night price action was dominated by action in the crude oil markets thanks to the OPEC meeting that is taking place this week.  So far headlines have been bearish with no production cuts being seen before the meeting ends.

The overnight CBOT trade has been slightly higher following Monday’s decline. The harvest is picking up across the Midwest with producers moving into the corn and soybean fields at an equal rate. Pace is slightly behind schedule but only slightly so. US corn yields remain good but below 2014 levels in many cases. On the other hand, soybean yields have been record which has many traders discussing a further increase to USDA’s September soybean yield estimate. The satellites are confirming this in my opinion.   USDA reported that 10% of the US soybean crop and 15% of the US corn crop is harvested with 30% of the US winter wheat crop being seeded. All are right around to averages. It’s expected that a big push will be made in the harvest of summer row crops this week as fields dry down. US corn and soybean crop condition ratings held steady at 74% GD/EX in corn and 73% GD/EX in soybeans.

Cotton weather appears to be improving, we should see a week of drier weather going forward. Global economic uncertainty is my main concern, as any bearish news could tilt this market pretty quickly as the funds are set up very long. I look for perception of supply to increase over coming weeks.  Cotton is a sell in the 70’s for 2016 and 2017 contracts in my opinion.

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About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)