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Home / Futures Blog / Technical Ag Knowledge: Outlook for Sept 19-23

Technical Ag Knowledge: Outlook for Sept 19-23

September 19, 2016 by Tom Dosdall

This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday September 19, 2016.


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Markets are moving! Make sure you stay aware of the key technical levels in the markets that affect you and call your Daniels advisor if you need to update any of your positions.

Ag Markets

Dec ’16 Corn

Funds reduced their speculative net short by +30K contracts last week which gives the bulls some wind in the sails to start this week. Trend and momentum are both up, but the market needs to close above the TAS supply level at 343’2 in order to maintain the technically bullish outlook. A close above this level could help to trigger additional buy stops and set the table for a potential rally toward 370’0. We see a good base of demand built in now at 321’0.

Nov ’16 Soybeans

Overnight trading brought the soybean price right up against the supply (resistance) level at 983’0 and we are seeing it struggle to break through there early today. Unlike corn, momentum is still down in soybeans so this could be a meaningful near term target price. We also have the 50 day moving average just above this resistance level at 992’0. One more bearish thing to consider is the cross of the 50 day over the 100 day a couple of weeks back. All that said, if wet weather outlooks continue to creep in you could see all of this technical analysis adjusted, especially pending a close above 992’0.

Dec ’16 Wheat

Dec Wheat is out of balance and bullish when trading above 401’0. There is a good base of support built in below there at 391’0 (in my opinion). Previous channel area at 427’0 could be a medium term target. Remember, funds still hold a near record spec short position!

Dec ’16 Cotton

Cotton is trading within a fair value zone (sideways) with 0.06578 demand and 0.6912 supply. The 100 day moving average is short term support at 0.6705. Momentum is mildly bullish so we will look to either be buyers of the dips or breakout of the range.

Oct ’16 Live Cattle

The rally in the cattle market should not have come as a complete surprise following TAS Navigators warning of bear trend exhaustion last week (purple bar on bottom). We are now approaching several waves of resistance; first at 109.550, then 111.000, and 112.300.

Oct ’16 Lean Hogs

Support in hogs gave out at 58.00 which make me wary of more potential downside. The market will remain out of balance/bearish as long as it is below 59.500.

Outside Markets

Dec ’16 US Dollar

The uptrend in the Dollar is supported at 94.814 and again at 94.241 (basis the daily close). We favor a sideways to potentially lower USD in the week ahead with overhead resistance in the 96.000 area (200 day moving average).

Oct ’16 Crude Oil

Crude is resting on a double bottom support level Monday morning (Sept 1), but the technicals favor a bearish outlook with resistance at 44.85. Eventual bear target could be 41.20.

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Technical Ag Knowledge

About Tom Dosdall

Tom has supported traders and investors worldwide across all dt execution categories. With the understanding that each client is independent of another, Tom has shown an ability to listen to the needs of each and match them with the service or product that best suits their circumstances.

If you are a self-directed trader, you can expect objective guidance on finding the right balance between price and value. That might mean anything from finding a sharp platform to help you do what you already know you want to do or providing consultation on some of the most cutting edge trading indicators on the market.

If you are more of a “hands off” investor, ask Tom about the network of professional advisors that he has come across over his years in the industry. Once he can get a feel for your risk tolerance and objectives he can help you to deploy a program.

Are you somewhere in between fully hands on and fully hands off? Consider how you can leverage Tom’s experience for your benefit in a broker-assisted relationship. Together, you will analyze the markets that you are most interested in and come up with a trading plan that you are comfortable and confident with.

In summary, his goal is twofold: to ensure that each client he works with is guided with the resources needed to trade with confidence and that they are equipped with the knowledge and comfort needed to grow as an investor in the new global economy. Tom holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Colgate University.

Market Perspective: 80% technical 20% fundamental

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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