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Home / Futures Blog / This Week in Grain – 9/16 Weekly Wrap

This Week in Grain – 9/16 Weekly Wrap

September 16, 2016 by John Payne

This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday, September 16, 2016.


Happy Friday everyone!

Welcome to This week in Grain’s weekly wrap. The week was slightly negative for all of the row crops, as all the markets I follow with the exception of wheat was negative for the week. Corn was down 3 for the week but up 6 today. KC and Chicago wheat are just above unchanged for the week and up 3-4 on the day. Soybeans led the charge as short covering brought the daily close up 15.75 from yesterday but down a 12 cents on the week. Cotton lost about 40 ticks on the day, closing off 1.75 cents for the week.

Lost in the fog of war this week was the WASDE report from Monday. I think the theme of the week for corn and wheat was hope that prices are carving out a long term low thanks to a relatively rosy demand outlook. Supply carryout’s came in tighter for the two feed grains, albeit slightly. Soybeans had a tighter old crop carryout and a bigger new crop carryout than expected, because of the new crop yield offsetting higher demand. I think soybeans and cotton were higher toward the back end of the week because of this model run. Frost isn’t a problem this year but the rain might be. Harvest delays aren’t a threat yet but an inundation of rain could keep farmers out of the field and the market waiting on its new crop. November should reflect that conditions. Cotton has a similar story, only the old crop stocks aren’t near as tight.

precip

I’m going to start doing some audio updates throughout the week. I look to launch into the Podcast section of your IPhone or Android device in coming weeks, so you can get the audio sent onto your smart phone. As of right now it’s just living on our website, if you have 8 minutes take a listen. Ill be trying to post these in the am and pm. Writing and dealing with brokerage is becoming difficult and this is an easier way to keep ya’ll informed. I’ll maintain my prose, but it will probably come only a few times a week where the audio will come twice a day. Stay tuned on this.

Click Here for the Audio Wrap

COT reports were just released, still showing the same story as we have been following for the last few weeks. The wheat and corn markets remain historically net short (and straight short) in the spec category while the cotton markets remain just off historically net long territory. It should be noted that in wheat we are seeing some speculative length coming in that concerns me. The net remains historically short in wheat and I think there is definitely a rip coming, but the market seems to be seeing more than its fair share of bets made that way of late.

wheatcorncot
cottonbeans

Based off these, over the longer term I remain bullish corn and wheat and bearish cotton. I am neutral soybeans over the longer term at these prices. I would be selling November 17 especially on rallies toward 970 and the Nov 16 on rallies to 10.00. Over the short term I am neutral to bearish corn (I think odds are high we see a test of 320 again) and neutral wheat, and bearish soybeans and cotton.
Thanks for following along, have a nice weekend.
John

https://media.blubrry.com/twigcast/p/content.blubrry.com/twigcast/twig_2016-09-16_episode_0002.mp3

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This Week In Grain

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This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: This Week In Grain, TWIG Cast

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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