This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday August 12, 2016.
Good morning friends
It’s a WASDE Friday, which means I need to tell my wife my Sunday evening is ruined as I will be monitoring risk. There always seems to be wacky price action with only 2 hours to trade the report before shutting down for two days. The number everyone is interested in talking about is the US yield. It’s on the tip of every producers mind, but I think if the bears are solely focused on the US crop, they could be surprised by the world numbers.
The USDA has been slow to cop to some of the world data but I think they may start to tip their hand, especially in corn. There has been a lot of talk about EU wheat in recent days, but little in the way of corn discussion. I think the market could be in for a surprise if the corn crop there doesn’t finish well. Here is an eye opening chart from Strategie Grains, a research firm in Europe.
I’ll be back this afternoon after the report to break it all down; my only advice would be to get set up so you aren’t flushing out of long positions on a selloff in all row crops. If it requires you buying cheap puts to hang on to longs, then that’s what you should do. I think seasonal lows will be made sometime in the next 30 days in 2017 contracts, if not already.
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