This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday August 12, 2016.
Good morning friends
It’s a WASDE Friday, which means I need to tell my wife my Sunday evening is ruined as I will be monitoring risk. There always seems to be wacky price action with only 2 hours to trade the report before shutting down for two days. The number everyone is interested in talking about is the US yield. It’s on the tip of every producers mind, but I think if the bears are solely focused on the US crop, they could be surprised by the world numbers.
The USDA has been slow to cop to some of the world data but I think they may start to tip their hand, especially in corn. There has been a lot of talk about EU wheat in recent days, but little in the way of corn discussion. I think the market could be in for a surprise if the corn crop there doesn’t finish well. Here is an eye opening chart from Strategie Grains, a research firm in Europe.
I’ll be back this afternoon after the report to break it all down; my only advice would be to get set up so you aren’t flushing out of long positions on a selloff in all row crops. If it requires you buying cheap puts to hang on to longs, then that’s what you should do. I think seasonal lows will be made sometime in the next 30 days in 2017 contracts, if not already.
Subscribe to This Week In Grain
This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.