This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday August 01, 2016.
**Commitment of Traders (futures only as of July 26) CORN -67,571; SOYBEANS +109,696; SRW WHEAT -131,142**
Ag Markets
Dec ’16 Corn
The bear trend could be getting exhausted as a good base of support is now established at 336’2. Short term rallies could be challenged by sellers in the supply zone at 348’4. A close above that level tilts the scales in favor of the bulls and opens the door for a potential run toward 370’0. Bias: Mildly Bullish.
Nov ’16 Soybeans
There is a chance soybeans have carved out a near term low in the 955’4-963’0 area and we are looking for a technical bounce as this week plays itself out. The 200 day simple moving average at 955’4 held last week and the market posted a double bottom low of 963’0 Monday/Tuesday last week. This is traditionally a potential reversal chart pattern. Should these levels hold again, upside objectives for the bulls could be 1022’0-1035’0. Should we see a close below 955’4, the market could be subject to additional liquidation. Next support level down from there is 920’0.
Sep ’16 Wheat
Another fresh record net short position in managed money last Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report (-131,142) doesn’t seem to be spooking the bears yet. This market desperately needs to see a close above 412’0 on Monday, in my opinion, in order to avoid halt the slow grind lower. There is no noticeable support on the monthly wheat chart between 412’0 and 295’0 (August/Dec, 2005).
Dec ’16 Cotton
The Dec Cotton chart has some interesting things setting up and should probably have producers thinking about hedges or sales at these levels, depending on % marketed so far. We have a resistance line well defined at 0.7500 and momentum on TAS Navigator hooking over bearish. There is also the potential for a fast moving bear market through the volume at price zone (0.7120 down to 0.6690). Should we see a close above 0.7500, these bear notes would be cancelled and trend could continue up (major monthly resistance 0.9500). Bias: Bearish below 0.7500.
Oct ’16 Live Cattle
Last week’s rally hits bear trend line resistance as well as the 50 day moving average and stalled out. I am looking for the 113.200 level to remain challenging again for the bulls here to start the week. A close above this line would be viewed as technically bullish. Short term bear objective could be the TAS demand zone at 107.425.
Oct ’16 Lean Hogs
The rout continues in hogs continues as the collapse in pork cutout values and a weak demand picture on the cash market continues to pressure. The market is technically oversold and could be trying to find a near term bottom soon. The potential for a sharp rally to 62.400 cannot be ruled out early this week if lows are able to hold. The continuous front month chart shows next level of support near 57.075.
Outside Markets
Sep’16 US Dollar
The Dollar was hammered on Friday after a weaker than expected GDP number but should potentially still find some support this week near the moving averages. We noted on Friday the support found at 38% retracement between April low and July high. The 50% level would be the next level down at 94.750. Longer term picture, the bias still remains up.
Sep ’16 Crude Oil
A big headwind for commodities as a whole continues to be the weakness in crude oil. The trend remains down with no signs of exhaustion yet. Look for 39.00 to provide short term support this week.
Subscribe to Technical Ag Knowledge – Paid Edition – Monthly
Technical Ag Knowledge – Paid Edition – Monthly - Whether you’re a producer, end user, or trader in the agricultural commodity markets, “Technical Ag Knowledge” will provide you with a crucial awareness of key technical price levels each week so you can manage your positions with conviction and confidence.
Risk Disclosure
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.
