This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday July 11, 2016.
**Crop progress numbers will be released today @ 3PM (CST).** **USDA World Supply/Demand (WASDE) Tuesday @ 11AM (CST)**
On Friday, we mentioned the potential for an “island bottom” reversal chart setup for today’s session (see chart below for definition). Early indications suggest this bullish chart pattern could be in place to start the week following a gap higher 3.67 open (3.62^4 Friday settlement). If the market can string together a rally I would consider re-establishing hedges near the 100/50 day moving averages (3.90-4.00) as these levels could offer resistance. Support is 3.48 for now. Bias: Mildly Bullish.
Soybeans have some significant overhead resistance levels to contend with early this week. The 50 day simple moving average and old TAS demand level at 10.95^4 could both be difficult to break through. Momentum is down on TAS Navigator so for now I view the upper end of the range as selling opportunities. A close above 11.10^6 could open the door for another run at contract highs. Bear objective $10.01. Bias: Mildly Bearish.
Is wheat finally ready to pick itself up off the mat? The chart patterns suggest perhaps that is the case following a bullish hammer candlestick formation (July 5) and follow through fish hook type action late last week. The market is extremely oversold basis the deviations from major moving averages and maintains a hefty net short position among managed funds (-106,232) which could trigger a snap back rally at any moment. Bias: Mildly Bullish for a rally toward 4.80.
Cotton has pushed through recent resistance and only has one price level bak on April 24, 2015 (0.6695) to break through before hitting fresh contract highs. The trend is now up although momentum appears to be weak so new long positions are cautioned. The uptrend could be well supported near 0.6450. A close below this level would be technically bearish. Bias: Neutral.
The market has proven to struggle mightily with the 50 day moving average the last few months. Until it can manage a definitive close above the red line, I view this as a short term selling opportunity. Bear objective is the TAS demand level at 135.575.
Similar to Feeders, Fat Cattle are having a tough time when they approach the major 50 and 100 day moving averages. There should be a decent level of support at the TAS demand level (110.375), however a close below this would signal a shift in trend back in favor of the bears. 115.350 is viewed as a selling opportunity. Bias: Neutral.
Have hogs fallen too far, too fast? Multi month support at 78.400 could be a buying opportunity for a dead cat bounce. I would not try to play a bounce much past 81.500. Trend is down. Bias: Mildly Bearish.
The Dollar is in the early stages of a bull trend. I view dips back toward the old bear trend resistance as potentially buying opportunities. Momentum is up. Next significant objective is 98.500. Bias: Bullish.
Crude oil is supported for now at the 100 day moving average but it appears to only be a matter of time before the bears inflict some more serious damage to the charts. Rallies toward 47.71 would be viewed as selling opportunities in my opinion. Momentum is hooking over bearish.
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