This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday July 08, 2016.
Markets are back up into yesterday’s AM trading range off the lows. The speculator is still in liquidation mode pretty much across the board. Crude, copper, hogs and beans, four of the better performing markets since the start of Q2 have been BLASTED since the start of Q3. At one point yesterday, soybeans were off 12% for the QUARTER in only four sessions. The knee jerk reaction is to blame weather but I think its still an overhang from the European/UK fallout last week. There is one other factor at play here, Chinese currency devaluation. PBOC has been stealthy with this latest devaluation, bringing the Won down against the dollar as the rest of the world is in chaos. Chinese currency devaluation is negative for anything China imports, soybeans and hogs would fall in that category. I don’t know when it stops but when it does I think the commodity markets rebound.
I remain bullish of all three US row crops at these levels. I would encourage buying of wheat and corn, while staying above the fray in soybeans for now. I am a willing seller of cotton above 65 (68-70 cents in Dec 17) and a buyer of cattle in all forms. Roll hedges down in corn and wheat if you haven’t already
I am really bullish of corn at these levels but I want to see the COT numbers before I get too quick to build a long position. Ill check back in later today with those numbers.. but first some news.
Nonfarm Payrolls 287K vs 180K Expected. Precious metals are falling as bond yields come up off a pretty good jobs number.
-Corn sales of 369,800 MT for 2015-16 & 443,200 MT for 2016-17 are a disappointment. Exports topped 1.27 MMT. This is the first disappointing export number in a while, but we do maintain a healthy pace. ‘
-Soybean sales of 637,300 MT for 2015-16 & 585,700 for 2016-17 at top end of expectations. Exports of 194,600 MT.
-Wheat sales of 825,300 MT for 2016-17 topped expectations. Exports of 533,600 MT. This was the best export report for wheat in some time.
Before I go for the day, I want to leave you with the Brazilian corn production numbers. For newbies, 1 metric ton of corn = 36 bushels. Small crops get something… H/T to @agtradertalk
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