This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday July 08, 2016.
Markets are back up into yesterday’s AM trading range off the lows. The speculator is still in liquidation mode pretty much across the board. Crude, copper, hogs and beans, four of the better performing markets since the start of Q2 have been BLASTED since the start of Q3. At one point yesterday, soybeans were off 12% for the QUARTER in only four sessions. The knee jerk reaction is to blame weather but I think its still an overhang from the European/UK fallout last week. There is one other factor at play here, Chinese currency devaluation. PBOC has been stealthy with this latest devaluation, bringing the Won down against the dollar as the rest of the world is in chaos. Chinese currency devaluation is negative for anything China imports, soybeans and hogs would fall in that category. I don’t know when it stops but when it does I think the commodity markets rebound.
I remain bullish of all three US row crops at these levels. I would encourage buying of wheat and corn, while staying above the fray in soybeans for now. I am a willing seller of cotton above 65 (68-70 cents in Dec 17) and a buyer of cattle in all forms. Roll hedges down in corn and wheat if you haven’t already
I am really bullish of corn at these levels but I want to see the COT numbers before I get too quick to build a long position. Ill check back in later today with those numbers.. but first some news.
JOBS REPORT
Nonfarm Payrolls 287K vs 180K Expected. Precious metals are falling as bond yields come up off a pretty good jobs number.
EXPORTS
-Corn sales of 369,800 MT for 2015-16 & 443,200 MT for 2016-17 are a disappointment. Exports topped 1.27 MMT. This is the first disappointing export number in a while, but we do maintain a healthy pace. ‘
-Soybean sales of 637,300 MT for 2015-16 & 585,700 for 2016-17 at top end of expectations. Exports of 194,600 MT.
-Wheat sales of 825,300 MT for 2016-17 topped expectations. Exports of 533,600 MT. This was the best export report for wheat in some time.
Before I go for the day, I want to leave you with the Brazilian corn production numbers. For newbies, 1 metric ton of corn = 36 bushels. Small crops get something… H/T to @agtradertalk
Subscribe to This Week In Grain
This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.
Risk Disclosure
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.
