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Home / Futures Blog / TWIG Note 6/20 – Crop Progress

TWIG Note 6/20 – Crop Progress

June 21, 2016 by John Payne

This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Tuesday June 21, 2016.


Crop progress reports were released a few minutes ago to some fanfare but little change. Corn and soybeans stand poised to fall below recent lows if model runs don’t show something of note soon.

  • Corn conditions remained static at 75% G/E, the level where they were a week ago and 6% better than a year ago.
  • Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota are at 79% G/E while Illinois sits at 74% G/E in corn. Its very, very difficult to trade with the idea yields may come in sub trend when the big 4 (sorry Indiana 72%) sit at fantastic levels like this. If this would stay sideways, I think the market may begin to look at yields above 170. Keep in mind its still early and the 6-10 day shows a lot of heat, but moisture is expected as well.
  • Beans did see a 1% drop in ratings from 74% to 73%, but its nothing I would worry about yet. The start of a trend could be a concern, but at these levels were still looking at a huge crop at 81 .5 million acres. Bears should probably worry about a jump of 3-4 million acres which is now being thrown around by some.
  • Cotton conditions were unchanged increased 1% to54% G/E, 1% less than a year ago.
  • Winter wheat harvest is 25% completed vs 28% average, conditions remain unchanged from last week at 61% G/E.
  • Spring wheat conditions fell 3% G/E to 76%. Its probably worth monitoring the spring crop if you are bullish.
  • The bulls are going to probably point out the top soil moisture ratings which sit at 75% G/E and well below the 84% from a year ago, but the areas without moisture are not in the corn belt. Iowa is 76%, Minnesota is 95%, Illinois is at 70% and Indiana is at 68%. Nebraska irrigates so I don’t really care to judge it based off this.

Bottom line, weather bulls will need more to push prices above recent highs. Next week’s report will be a deciding factor on how much this stuff matters anyway, as acreage could jump across corn and beans which would ease the need for a bin buster.

This Week In Grain

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This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: This Week In Grain

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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