This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday June 20, 2016.
**Crop progress numbers will be released today @ 3PM (CST).**
Corn struggles to break strongly through last summer’s highs ($4.46^6), although it has been catching buying support on declines toward the $4.35 area. Our TAS Box levels show the market being “out of balance” and in favor of the bulls when trading above $4.40. When below $4.40, the market is in a “neutral” trading pattern. When below $4.12 the trend will have turned bearish. Should the market clear $4.46^6 strongly, the next target is $4.68 (June, 2014). Momentum is showing signs of buying interest fading. A trade below the point of control ($4.28) looks to put the market on track for a test of TAS demand level near $4.12^4. Bias: Mildly Bullish.
We have a new supply level (resistance) at $11.64 this week. TAS Navigator is showing a red tip as of Monday morning which is taken as a sign of bearish momentum building. I will be watching a for a close below $11.30 as a significant alignment of bearish indicator. A close above $11.64 reverses that sentiment and puts the market back in favor of the bull trend. Bias: Mildly Bearish.
Wheat is technically out of balance and in favor of the bears when it is trading below $5.04 but I am a little more bullish due to these two trend lines. Recent history has shown us that these lines have held strongly and the market has the potential to catch a good upside bounce when they are hit. #1 at $4.87. #2 at $4.75:
Cotton again pushing on the 1-year highs near 0.6600 Monday morning. A close above 0.6700 will be viewed as technically bullish for trend. After Thursday/Friday’s surge, puts could be available at a discount. Bias: Mildly Bearish.
Wedge breakout to the downside last week leaves the market in a bearish technical setup for this week unless it can manage a close above 141.400. I am looking for a potential test of the bear trend line near 134.750. Bias: Bearish.
Live cattle has a slightly better looking technical picture than feeders to start the week as contract lows are holding for now near 112.000. Momentum tilts bearish so a close below 111.500 would be damaging. The longer term bear trend line targets the next level of lows near 108.00. Bias: Bearish.
The continuous front month chart shows resistance for the bull trend near last year’s highs around 87.00 and TAS Navigator is flashing warning signs on the August chart that the bull trend could be overbought. Should the market manage a close above recent highs (90.000) the next upside target is 93.00 (Nov, 2014), however we might have come too far, too fast here. Bias: Neutral (but interested in discounted puts).
The bear trend line tested and held on Wednesday and we are seeing further weakness Monday morning as polls in UK suggest no Brexit. I would only be a buyer of the Dollar on a deeper break toward the lower end of this range near 91.750. Bias: Bearish. ***We are trading this market in my speculative newsletter, “Dosdall Daily Edge“.
A great lesson on display in the importance of trend lines. We saw the break on Monday of last week and the market quickly shed $4.00 before regaining footing on Friday. Momentum still leans bearish so I will be looking to sell the lower end of this line if the opportunity presents itself again this week. Momentum is tilted down. Bias: Bearish.
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