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Home / Futures Blog / TWIG Morning Minute – 6/15

TWIG Morning Minute – 6/15

June 15, 2016 by John Payne

This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Wednesday June 15, 2016.


Today we will hear from FOMC chair Janet Yellen, continue weather observations and get a snapshot of June soybean crush from NOPA. All of this goes on as December corn tests highs from last summer and soybeans chop just below their highs (sorry wheat L).The upper Midwest got rain last night and the forward runs show a break in temperature along with increased chances for moisture going forward. I am not bearish on yield by any means at this point, I remain bearish on price in the long run and think sales at these levels could look pretty good 8 weeks from now.

Let’s first start with weather over the past 24 hours. Nice rains hit the Corn Belt north of the I-80 line beginning just west of Omaha. Folks recorded anywhere between .25 and 3 inches all the way up to the Wisconsin-Minnesota border and east into Indiana. Yes, the parched areas of Southern Iowa were not hit but the rains over the bulk of Illinois should suffice for now. I think we see a crop rating drop next week but it probably comes from states not named Iowa, Illinois or Minnesota. Nebraska being irrigated probably keeps them somewhat high as well. SO what we have is the highest producing areas of the corn belt looking at above trend yields at this point while areas not in high production areas like Tennessee and Ohio suffering a bit.

weather

The weather isn’t that bullish in my opinion but the charts are. Corn is pushing over the highs from last summer in December corn, putting 5.00 within its sights. But I remain steadfast that folks need to be hedging production here but I was talking with Craig Turner and he thinks the catalysts remain bullish for the short term. He thinks waiting until the end of the month to see what the pollination forecasts look like will be something that keeps the market high. It really is a gamble here if you want to sell. You are gambling 1) that you have corn to sell 2) that the macro conditions wont encourage the market to keep rallying and 3) the weather factors not in your area will keep the market on bid.

Selling a great price relative to everyone else is probably correlated with the environment in which you sell. Selling a quiet market is easy, selling a wild bullish beast like this market is very difficult and requires guts of steel. Now is the time for a gut check.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: This Week In Grain

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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