This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Wednesday June 15, 2016.
Today we will hear from FOMC chair Janet Yellen, continue weather observations and get a snapshot of June soybean crush from NOPA. All of this goes on as December corn tests highs from last summer and soybeans chop just below their highs (sorry wheat L).The upper Midwest got rain last night and the forward runs show a break in temperature along with increased chances for moisture going forward. I am not bearish on yield by any means at this point, I remain bearish on price in the long run and think sales at these levels could look pretty good 8 weeks from now.
Let’s first start with weather over the past 24 hours. Nice rains hit the Corn Belt north of the I-80 line beginning just west of Omaha. Folks recorded anywhere between .25 and 3 inches all the way up to the Wisconsin-Minnesota border and east into Indiana. Yes, the parched areas of Southern Iowa were not hit but the rains over the bulk of Illinois should suffice for now. I think we see a crop rating drop next week but it probably comes from states not named Iowa, Illinois or Minnesota. Nebraska being irrigated probably keeps them somewhat high as well. SO what we have is the highest producing areas of the corn belt looking at above trend yields at this point while areas not in high production areas like Tennessee and Ohio suffering a bit.
The weather isn’t that bullish in my opinion but the charts are. Corn is pushing over the highs from last summer in December corn, putting 5.00 within its sights. But I remain steadfast that folks need to be hedging production here but I was talking with Craig Turner and he thinks the catalysts remain bullish for the short term. He thinks waiting until the end of the month to see what the pollination forecasts look like will be something that keeps the market high. It really is a gamble here if you want to sell. You are gambling 1) that you have corn to sell 2) that the macro conditions wont encourage the market to keep rallying and 3) the weather factors not in your area will keep the market on bid.
Selling a great price relative to everyone else is probably correlated with the environment in which you sell. Selling a quiet market is easy, selling a wild bullish beast like this market is very difficult and requires guts of steel. Now is the time for a gut check.
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