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Home / Futures Blog / Technical Ag Knowledge: Outlook for June 13-17

Technical Ag Knowledge: Outlook for June 13-17

June 13, 2016 by Tom Dosdall

This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday June 13, 2016.


tak

**Crop progress numbers will be released today @ 3PM (CST).**

Ag Markets

Dec ’16 Corn

Corn is again knocking on the door of summer 2015 resistance this morning and will need a boost from the bulls to push through and target the next level at 4.68^2. Momentum favors the bulls but the market has moved far away from the 50 day simple moving average, leaving it in extremely overbought from a technical perspective. The uptrend appears to have initial support all the way back at 4.06^6 so continued volatility can be expected. Bias: Mildly Bullish.

tak-dec-corn

Nov ’16 Soybeans

November soybeans trading at fresh 2+ year highs on Monday morning leaves the market in a technically bullish state, despite being extremely overbought. Next level of potential congestion comes in on the monthly charts in the 12.40 area. Initial support of the uptrend can be found using the 240 min chart at 11.06. A trade below this could begin to tip the scales toward seeing some long position liquidation. Bias: Bullish.

tak-nov-beans

Jul ’16 Wheat

The wheat market has come around and the technical picture is starting to improve. TAS Navigator is now fully crossed over into positive territory which is positive for trend. The lower trend line connects with the low value level on TAS Boxes which indicates strong support to me at 4.62. The next objective to the upside is 5.30-5.36 where the market will likely run into a sizable wall of sellers. Bias: Bullish.

tak-jul-wheat

Dec ’16 Cotton

Cotton producers have an opportunity for sales or hedges this week as the market sits on one year highs here at 0.6600. A close above this level will tilt the scales in favor of the bulls and could attract fresh buying. A failure to break through communicates potential trend exhaustion and possible correction to 0.6450 or even 0.6210. Bias: Neutral.

tak-dec-cotton

Aug ’16 Feeder Cattle

The big thing to watch early this week is how the market does in this wedge. A breakout above the upper line would also be a break above the 50 day moving average and considered technically bullish. TAS Navigator says momentum is starting to build on the buy side so I slightly favor this over a lower break. Futures remain at a discount to cash. Bias: Bullish on a break above 147.500.

tak-aug-feeder

Aug ’16 Live Cattle

Momentum is flat and the bear trend line connects with the high value level on TAS Boxes at 120.000. I do not see the technical strength here to get excited and would rather look for a value entry toward the lower end of the range at 112.300 if I am looking for a way to trade this. A close above 120.000 will tilt scales more bullish. Bias: Neutral.

tak-aug-cattle

Jul ’16 Lean Hogs

We are getting a couple of signs that hogs could be putting in a near term top. 1) The reversal candlestick bar on Thursday put an end to the six session bull winning streak and 2) purple bars on TAS Navigator sense buying momentum falling off. Bias: Overbought/Bearish.

tak-aug-hogs

Outside Markets

Sep’16 US Dollar

The USD Index has a mixed technical picture to start the week. Trading above 94.475 puts the near term trend in favor of the bulls and a potential re-test of 95.600. TAS Navigator actually shows sellers in control of longer term trend, however which leads me to want to be a seller if the market approaches the bear trend line. Bias: Mildly Bearish.

tak-sep-usd

Jul ’16 Crude Oil

The two month bull trend line in crude oil is broken and the market is now looking vulnerable for a pullback to 46.06. This is where TAS Boxes show the next demand zone and also where the indicators intersect with the 50 day moving average. Bias: Bearish.

tak-jul-crude

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THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: Technical Ag Knowledge

About Tom Dosdall

Tom has supported traders and investors worldwide across all dt execution categories. With the understanding that each client is independent of another, Tom has shown an ability to listen to the needs of each and match them with the service or product that best suits their circumstances.

If you are a self-directed trader, you can expect objective guidance on finding the right balance between price and value. That might mean anything from finding a sharp platform to help you do what you already know you want to do or providing consultation on some of the most cutting edge trading indicators on the market.

If you are more of a “hands off” investor, ask Tom about the network of professional advisors that he has come across over his years in the industry. Once he can get a feel for your risk tolerance and objectives he can help you to deploy a program.

Are you somewhere in between fully hands on and fully hands off? Consider how you can leverage Tom’s experience for your benefit in a broker-assisted relationship. Together, you will analyze the markets that you are most interested in and come up with a trading plan that you are comfortable and confident with.

In summary, his goal is twofold: to ensure that each client he works with is guided with the resources needed to trade with confidence and that they are equipped with the knowledge and comfort needed to grow as an investor in the new global economy. Tom holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Colgate University.

Market Perspective: 80% technical 20% fundamental

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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