This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday June 06, 2016.
**Crop progress numbers will be released today @ 3PM (CST).**
**USDA Supply/Demand & Crop Production Friday @ 11AM (CST)**
Overnight trading carried the market through resistance and into fresh 14 month highs. Buying momentum has picked up a measure of strength despite Friday’s Commitment of Traders report which showed managed money net long 130,798 contracts. Next upside target could be $4.37, while $4.10^4 should provide the first level of support for the bull trend. Bias: Cautiously Bullish.
Resistance we talked about at 10.91^4 last week is long gone as funds continue to add to their net long position, adding over 6,000 contracts last week to take total net long to 208,696. Picking a top in this market is almost impossible right now with the volume of contracts pouring in, so instead as producers we want to continue to roll up put options and reward the rally at 4:1 ratios or better. We like re-owning cash sold bushels with fixed risk strategies on deeper breaks in price, perhaps one target at 10.91^4 and the next at 10.23. Bias: Cautiously Bullish.
Wheat is +0.43 in just 3 1/4 sessions, getting a strong bid at the lower end of its range down near $4.60. Next line of resistance is seen at $5.12 and I think we will have a good chance of hitting that this week. The big questions is do we start to see a more meaningful bounce in this market as it is the only one of the “big three” grains with a net short funds position (-90,991)? Look for $4.77 to provide a good layer of support and entry area for wheat producers who might be looking for ways to reown bushels that need to be sold straight out of the field.
Cotton producers could have a great opportunity for sales or hedges as the market approaches six month highs this week. Darker green bars on TAS Navigator shows buying momentum starting to tail off. Bias: Bullish to 0.6600.
The big thing to watch early this week is how the market does in this wedge. A breakout above the upper line would also be a break above the 50 day moving average and considered technically bullish. TAS Navigator says momentum is starting to build on the buy side so I slightly favor this over a lower break. Futures remain at a discount to cash. Bias: Bullish on a break above 148.500.
The lower end of the wedge and TAS Boxes could provide a fair level of support near 113.00. Bias: Bullish on a close above 119.00.
Hogs are literally and figuratively “off the charts” bullish right trading at fresh 17 month highs. Next upside target is 93.325 from Nov., 2014. TAS Navigator is not showing signs of a whole lot of buying strength so new long entries are cautioned here. Bias: Mildly Bullish.
Friday’s bad job numbers broke the Dollar bull trend and give a tailwind to commodities. Recent point of control level at 93.200 could provide an initial level of support this week but the market is now out of balance and favoring the bears until we get new TAS Box levels. Bias: Mildly Bearish.
Crude oil’s bull trend line looks poised for a big week as long as the lower line in blue can hold. Navigator shows the bull momentum starting to decline a bit so look for a close below 48.00 as correction territory. The upper end of the trend line connects with 54.00 so we can use that as a potential medium term target. Bias: Mildly Bullish.
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