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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Weekly | Soybeans | Inside Commodity Futures Podcast

Turner’s Take Weekly | Soybeans | Inside Commodity Futures Podcast

May 17, 2016 by Craig Turner

New Podcast: John Payne and I have out a new podcast. We talk about the soybean market and the interesting dynamic between an abundant old crop supply and a potentially tight new crop supply.

Click here for our Inside Commodity Futures podcast

Soybeans: The more we look at last week’s WASDE report the more bullish I get on Soybeans this summer. I hear a lot of fundamental analyst arguing if old crop is 400mm bushels, beans should be under $10 and maybe under $9. I understand the argument but new crop is projected to be 305mm bushels and if we lose production due to planting delays or hot/dry summer weather, the new crop supply could go from adequate to tight in a hurry.

Unlike corn and wheat, the global export supply of soybeans is only located in two regions (mainly three nations).   The US, Brazil, and Argentina make up a majority of exportable soybeans and soymeal. If there are issues in one, both, or all regions it has a major effect on US and Global supply. That is not the case for corn and wheat. Plenty of nations outside of the US can produce corn and/or wheat and there is a lot of redundancy in the global grain production and exportation of corn and wheat. This makes corn and wheat less sensitive to US supply shocks when compared to soybeans.

In my opinion I see Prince Soybeans taking the crown from King Corn over the next couple of years.   The US will still have a competitive advantage of producing soybeans over much of the world, an advantage the US used to have with corn and wheat and now do not. Demand for soybeans should continue to have real demand growth as the world’s population becomes wealthier and protein consumption demand increases.

I like buying Soybeans on the breaks. In our last newsletter I said I liked July Beans at $10.60 and I still like that level if we get there again. Soybeans made a higher close today and we will see if that triggers more fund buying this week.

July Soybeans

July_Soybeans_May_17_2016

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This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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