This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Monday May 16, 2016.
NOPA Crush – Monday, 11 AM
Crop Progress – Monday, 15:00 (cdt)
US Consumer Price Index – Tuesday, 8:30
FOMC minutes – Wednesday, 14:00
Cattle on Feed – Friday, 14:00
G7 Meetings all week
Another week of grain trading is upon us as farmers continue to shiver across much of the US growing region. We enter this with the market fundamentals feeling a little more bullish than in any other recent time I remember thanks to demand increases (beans and corn) in last week’s WASDE report but I caution folks that a lot of that can be priced in pretty quickly. In the case of soybeans we now have the second largest net long fund position in the last 24 months reported out of the COT last week. The COT traders would probably tell you soybeans are a sell here based off that, but I wouldn’t be so quick to discount beans until we get them into the ground.
Weather in the Midwest remains incredibly cold and wet out west. This will change over the interim, but moisture may keep folks out of the field for another week or so in some places. The trade will need to grip with the idea the initial conditions reports of both corn and soybeans will be a little behind the curve compared to past years. World weather looks solid for Europe, Ukraine, Russia and China. Canadian wheat areas will see some rain this week, maybe that keeps the Minny- KC premium spread at bay. Argentina will be dry to advance the corn/soybean harvest while Brazil will start their winter corn harvest in a few weeks. Brazil remains very dry as we get into that harvest.
Technically, July corn is about a dime over the trend support level I follow (100 day EMA) while beans are closer to 1.00 above that level. KC wheat sits well below its trend resistance up near 4.80. Dec Cotton is be “boxing” with its 100 day EMA level this morning and a close above 6077 would be technically positive for the start to the week, prices look like they may be reversing trend with overnight action brings December to 6088.
I expect this week to be slower than last week on the grain front. Soybeans are probably due to correct a crush number that isn’t expected to blow anyone away. Funds need more bullish news to buy into, without a weather story we might see some correction as the vacuum of bullish news flow dissipates. I look for corn and wheat to make up ground on beans this week. Cotton is at a make or break point for the short term on the charts while we wait to see how planting progresses.
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