The MDA Snap Shot was able to participate in a bullish move in the E-Mini S&P. We had signals to buy the ES on 12/14/15 @ 2006.50 and then on 12/15/16 @ 2041.50. Today, we exited these positions just after the Fed announcement @ 2055.00. Below you will see the life and thought process going into these trades for your reference and the complete trade recaps. You can also review these updates within the MDA archives.
Typically, I do not look to hold positions into announcements or look to place a trade to “play an announcement/report”. There is just too much risk associated with that type of trade, and technical analysis can go out the window. However, we were positioned very well heading into this announcement, and the news were reporting that there was a 90%+ chance that they were going to raise rates, which we knew for the past month. I believed the market had already processed this news. The real risk on this trade would have been if they didn’t raise rates, but the worst case scenario we had locked in a winner already on this trade. We had broken 2050.00 very early in the morning, and I wanted to hold the positions in a chance to test these prices again and play the momentum on new highs. This is what happened:
Let’s review our positions and the risk on this trade going into the announcement (below you will see the life of the trade and screenshot notifications with the updates).
Entry 1: Buy @ 2006.50 Target Hit @ 2055.00 +48.50 pts or $2425 (before fees)
Entry 2: Buy @ 2041.50 Target Hit @ 2055.00 +13.50 pts or $675 (before fees)
Total P/L on both positions 62.00 pts or $3100 (before fees)
Entry #1 – 12/14/15
MDA Snap Shot sent out with ES trading opportunity @ 2006.50. The order was filled during that session.
Entry #2 – 12/15/15
With our first entry moving well in our favor and momentum on our side, I highlighted another buying opportunity in an MDA Snap Shot email – Buying the ES @ 2041.50 In addition to this entry, I updated the risk on the new position as well as the previous position @ 2027.00. This risk level was selected because it was below the most recent unfair low green boxes, AND if it were to be triggered “stopped out” on both entries, the simple math on both positions would have still been a profitable trade of 6.00 points, or $300 before fees.
12/16/15 – Exit – Screen Shot Below
The ES market traded around our 2nd entry price in the overnight and during the early morning hours, slowly trending up to 2050.00 After that point, it retraced back down putting a lot of volume in @ 2038.50 until about an hour before the 1pm CT Fed announcement. It was at that time that I decided if we made another run @ 2050.00, I would look to play a momentum trade if we broke into new highs. When the rate raise announcement occurred, we had a quick knee jerk down to around 2031.00 and then caught a run higher breaking into new session highs. I liked the quick move and decided to exit @ 2055.00 and sent the exit target and prices highlighted on the MDA Snap Shot. Since the exit email, the market has traded in a range of 2040.00 – 2062.50
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