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Home / Futures Blog / Trading the Euro after Today’s ECB Meeting

Trading the Euro after Today’s ECB Meeting

October 22, 2015 by Scott Hoffman

Today’s ECB meeting coincided with a breakout setup on the daily chart, which I noted in last night’s Swing Trader’s Insight. This combination allowed us to anticipate a potentially explosive move today and gave the setup to take advantage of the move when it occurred.

I keep track of news events and report releases for my trading. I don’t generally use them for fundamental analysis; there’s always someone who has better information earlier than I get it. However, the effects of these events are reflected in where a market goes after the release and this often makes for good trading opportunities.

The European Central Bank met today. This was a highly anticipated meeting whose outcome was uncertain, as there was a lot of disparity of opinion as to whether the ECB would look to expand its quantitative easing. The divergent opinions before the meeting meant a large move was likely afterward if it appeared they leaned strongly in one direction or the other (QE or not QE?, to borrow Shakespeare’s phrase.)

The market’s uncertainty was reflected in the price chart of the Euro, which had a number of patterns that suggested a large move was likely today.  Yesterday was an inside day, a doji bar and it had the narrowest range of the previous seven sessions. These patterns told us that traders didn’t want to commit to a direction ahead of the report.

ECZ daily Oct 22

Yesterday’s uncertainty and concurrent breakout setup meant a large move could be anticipated after the ECB meeting as traders reacted to perceived policy changes. As we knew to anticipate a likely move, we knew to watch for a trade opportunity after the meeting.

Much of Swing Trader’s Insight is based on the Taylor Trading Technique (TTT). For a large percentage of trading sessions we look for a price reversal around a previous session high or low- either a break below a previous day low followed by a reversal and rally, or a failed move above a previous day high, followed by a selloff.

With breakout setups we anticipate the opposite. Rather than looking for a reversal after a previous high or low is exceeded, we anticipate that a move beyond a high or low will serve as the springboard to a larger move in that direction as the market momentum feeds on itself in a positive feedback loop.

Normally we would use the previous session high and low as our primary reference prices for a breakout move. With today’s setup for the Euro, we would start with Wednesday’s high and low, but we could also use this week’s high (1.3197) and low (1.1314) as secondary reference prices for a breakout move.

I brought up the secondary breakout levels for two reasons. First, while we normally use the previous day high and low, sometimes there are price levels that are obvious reference prices. Second, in this case the market was already below the previous day low before the ECB meeting ended, so we needed to find a lower breakout level for our reference price.  We wanted to enter this trade when we had proof the market was heading in a direction, the proof being the move beyond the reference price. We take a trade when we have confirmation the market is doing what we anticipated- no confirmation, no trade.

The Euro’s move came just before 7:30 AM as ECB President Draghi began his press conference.  I wasn’t watching it at the time but I didn’t need to; the market’s action more or less told us what he said. The move below 1.1314 (Monday’s low) was our trigger for the short entry. The initial stop loss went either above the 6:45 AM high of 1.1335 or Wednesday’s low of 1.1343.

ECZ intraday Oct 22

The remainder of the morning was classic price action for a breakout day as the market continued to move in the direction of the breakout. There was a quick, sharp initial move lower and then it continued to trend lower as the session progressed. It often pays to stay with breakout trades beyond the initial move as both time and the momentum of the initial move set up a positive feedback loop, resulting in a trending move for the session.

Swing Trader's Insight Essential Reference Guide Cover

Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading

In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: Swing Trader's Insight

About Scott Hoffman

Scott graduated from the University of Chicago in 1986 with a degree in Economics. After graduation, Scott worked on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange then moved upstairs, serving as the personal broker to a former chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, he worked as a broker and margin manager, starting up the firm’s full service brokerage division.

Today, Scott serves as an educator and mentor for new traders, and as a trading partner and ally for experienced traders. The breadth and depth of Scott’s knowledge make him the “go to guy” for both retail and institutional traders.

Scott also publishes two futures advisories, Swing Trader’s Insight and Trade or Fade. He also writes the futures trading blog at www.futuresinsightblog.com. Scott has written articles for a number of futures publications and has done numerous futures trading seminars, including seminars for both the CBOT and CME.

Scott offers his customers the knowledge he has gained from his more than 25 years of experience in the futures business. Scott is accepting new clients at this time.

Scott lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and three children. In his free time he enjoys coaching his children’s sports and various other athletic activities.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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