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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Weekly: Fed Announcement Thursday

Turner’s Take Weekly: Fed Announcement Thursday

September 15, 2015 by Craig Turner

MRCI Subscribers – If you are an active MRCI subscriber and a trading client with an open account, I am providing analysis on a weekly basis for the MRCI trades we follow. If you would like to receive additional analysis for the MRCI trades that I follow, please call or email me (or your DT broker). Please note we will need to confirm your MRCI subscription. Also, if you no longer have an MRCI subscription but thinking about getting back involved, please feel free to call/email me too.


MACRO – The US Federal Reserve meets tomorrow and Thursday. The market is pricing in a 30% probability the Fed raises interest rates. Many analysts feel there is too much negative news right now for a rate hike but many of the big banks think it could come in the December meeting.

No one has any idea what the Fed is going to say on Thursday and there is even a lot of disagreement if a rate hike is good or bad for the economy and market. One thing for sure is the S&P has been consolidating and is now in a very tight range. Regardless of what the Fed reports on Thursday, I think that is when we break out higher or lower. Owning short dated call and puts could be a good way to play the report if we are still in this tight range on Thursday morning before the Fed announcement. I will have something in Turner’s Take Market Alert on Thursday morning if we still like this idea heading into the Fed announcement.

Emini S&P 500 Chart

ES_Sept_15_2015_TTWeekly

 

 

GRAINS: Soybean conditions were lowered last night from 63% to 61% Good/Excellent. Today the NOPA report was slightly above expectations. While both reports were bullish, Soybeans could barely rally 10 cents from yesterday’s close. We do have a FSA report tomorrow about acreage, and some are thinking the acres at the end of the year could be a half million to a full one million lower than they are now.

Here is a link to an interesting take on 2015/16 South American Soybean and Corn Production from Soybean and Corn Advisor. They are estimating total SAM soybean production increases 3.6 mmt and total corn declines 3. 8 mmt. Brazil will increase soybean acres while Argentina will lose corn acres. Part of their reasoning takes into account El Nino, which is just another part of the puzzle when it comes to South American crops.

We are also hearing (no official confirmations) that China may have cancelled four cargoes of Argentina soybean oil. The reason given is supposed to be import permit issues with the Chinese Government. Sounds a lot like how corn imports are rejected because a shipment that was good one week is no longer good the next week due to GMOs. If this is true and starts to happen more often, one has to think China does not need soybean oil either because they have enough supply, they think prices are going down, or both. Stay tuned!!!

We are still trying to get bear spread in July 16 vs Sept 16 Corn but has not reached our levels yet. We will remain patient. Corn may not be as burdensome in supply as Wheat and Soybeans, but stocks in the US and around the World are adequate. If South America has a good crop and we are able to get some early corn next year then I don’t see why July doesn’t trade back to a carry against Sept.

July vs September Corn

C_Sept_15_2015_TTWeekly

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Risk Disclosure

STRATEGIES USING COMBINATIONS OF POSITIONS, SUCH AS SPREAD AND STRADDLE POSITIONS MAY BE AS RISKY AS TAKING A SIMPLE LONG OR SHORT POSITION.

EXAMPLES OF HISTORIC PRICE MOVES OR EXTREME MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY THAT SUCH MOVES OR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON OCCURRENCES OR ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

EXAMPLES OF SEASONAL PRICE MOVES OR EXTREME MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY THAT SUCH MOVES OR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON OCCURRENCES OR LIKELY TO OCCUR.

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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