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Home / Futures Blog / Beyond the “Spotlight”

Beyond the “Spotlight”

June 29, 2015 by Don DeBartolo

For the Week of June 29, 2015

The Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.

Let’s focus on three contracts that have defined Trend Lines Formations.

Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

Canadian Dollar

There is a potential Momentum Entry Technique (M.E.T.) setup in the September 2015 Canadian Dollar contract. An M.E.T. trade occurs on a break out of a recent pivot point high or low with a corresponding market trend in that direction. The Trend Seeker (a U.S. Chart Company tool to help identify a market’s trend) is down. The MACD, a trend indicator, is slightly bearish below the baseline. The Stochastic indicator, a momentum indicator, is bearish as well. After trading to a short term low at .8039 (6/24/15), this contract has been trading sideways for a few sessions. A break of that low triggers a short entry opportunity. A stop loss could be placed above the recent contract highs from the recent sideways trading. A downside target could be the twelve month contract low of .7770 (3/18/15).

30-Year Treasury Bonds

The September 2015 30-Year T-Bonds contract failed to continue its downward momentum on the Greece news today. This creates a potential support level with the double lows at 147-16 (6/10/15) and 147-11 (6/26/15). On the rally today, the MACD, a trend indicator, and Stochastic, a momentum indicator, both turned bullish. There is an upward trend line with touches at 164-00 (4/17/15), 155-27 (5/29/15), and 152-06 (6/19/15). There is also smaller Channel Formation with the recent sideways trading activity. A break of the 152-06 (6/19/15) would trigger a long entry opportunity. A stop loss could be placed below the other side of the Channel Formation. A short term target is the next pivot point high at 155-27 (5/29/15). A longer term target could the 160-00 price level.

Heating Oil

The August 2015 Heating Oil contract has formed an upper trend line with touches at 2.0684 (5/06/15), 2.0343 (5/18/15), 1.9548 (6/17/15), and 1.9374 (6/24/15). A close above the upper trend line and indicator confirmation will trigger a long entry opportunity. The Trend Seeker (a U.S. Chart Company tool to help identify a market’s trend) is down though. The MACD, a trend indicator, is slightly bearish below the baseline. The Stochastic indicator, a momentum indicator, is bearish as well. There is a lower support line, almost setting up a Flat Bottom Triangle Formation. As long as prices hold this support level in the 1.8200 to 1.8300 range and the market trades higher, the indicators should shift bullish. The upside target could be the top point on the trend line at 2.0684 (5/06/15). An additional trade confirmation would be the crossover of a 20-day and 50-day Moving Averages.

Risk Disclosure

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Trade Spotlight

About Don DeBartolo

Don C. DeBartolo is a Series 3 licensed broker registered with the National Futures Association (NFA). As a former arbitrage clerk in the S&P 500 futures pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Don has floor trading experience. Taking his trade execution expertise and ability to navigate a fast-paced environment, Don transitioned to the brokerage side of the business. Since 2005, he has worked at Daniels Trading, a brokerage firm in the heart of the financial district in Chicago. His responsibilities as a broker include providing market analysis, trade execution, and money management to his clients around the world. In March 2010, he developed a formal trade advisory for clients of the firm seeking specific trade recommendations and subsequent risk management.

Due to his widespread proficiency and experience with the futures and commodity options markets, he is able to offer his clients timely insight, specialized trade recommendations, and educational information through various videos and writings.

Studying at Loyola University Chicago, Don discovered the international sport of rugby. Still today, he plays for the Chicago Griffins, a member of the highest league of rugby competition in the United States. Skill and discipline are two traits that carry over from the pitch to the trading screens.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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