This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Monday, June 22, 2015.
One week before one of the bigger weeks in the markets as far as new data goes. Set your clocks for next Tuesday at 11 am, we will get fundamental data that can make or break the trend for the next few months. We will get the quarterly update for old crop stocks, along with an update on planted acreage. Throw in a quarterly hog number (very important for hog trade, see last few quarterlies and what they did to trend), the Greece situation coming to a head, the end of Q2 and a 3 day weekend ahead and we have what many call “a developing situation”. Thankfully you read TWIG, so you know about it.
Here’s what’s on my radar this week:
- July beans are still 10 over on the river, watch that St. Louis basis. If it falls we might have a short term top near 10. March and May futures options expired near 990.
- River bids for corn near even money, up from last week.
- We saw 75% coverage showers in corn belt this weekend. We expect 95% coverage showers seen this week. Only 15% of HRW wheat areas had showers. 50% coverage seen this week. Beneficial rains for China. Some showers in Canada but overall dry pattern should continue. Some beneficial showers in FSU. 6-14 maps into July 5 call for cooling in the corn belt with showers. 8-14 day outlook…
- Corn pollination should be starting soon for much of the corn belt and with cooler temps and substantial soil moisture, should be substantial.
- Crop progress:
- Soybean conditions (G/E) -2% to 65%
- Soybeans planted 90% vs 87% last week and 95% 5 year ave. Missouri is at 51% vs 9% last week. Iowa is 80% GE.
- Corn conditions -2% to 71%. Iowa is at 83% GE. A great year in Iowa will make up for poor years elsewhere. Illinois is 70% GE.
- FYI – http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/corn/which-counties-us-grow-most-corn-soybeans
- If you are still in the 360 straddle, hang in there. If corn would rally tomorrow I’ll probably look to lift the put leg.
- Here are a few more spreads I like playing, KC-Chi looks appetizing here.
KC vs Chicago Wheat
Nov Beans – Dec Corn (x2)
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