This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Monday, June 22, 2015.
One week before one of the bigger weeks in the markets as far as new data goes. Set your clocks for next Tuesday at 11 am, we will get fundamental data that can make or break the trend for the next few months. We will get the quarterly update for old crop stocks, along with an update on planted acreage. Throw in a quarterly hog number (very important for hog trade, see last few quarterlies and what they did to trend), the Greece situation coming to a head, the end of Q2 and a 3 day weekend ahead and we have what many call “a developing situation”. Thankfully you read TWIG, so you know about it.
Here’s what’s on my radar this week:
- July beans are still 10 over on the river, watch that St. Louis basis. If it falls we might have a short term top near 10. March and May futures options expired near 990.
- River bids for corn near even money, up from last week.
- We saw 75% coverage showers in corn belt this weekend. We expect 95% coverage showers seen this week. Only 15% of HRW wheat areas had showers. 50% coverage seen this week. Beneficial rains for China. Some showers in Canada but overall dry pattern should continue. Some beneficial showers in FSU. 6-14 maps into July 5 call for cooling in the corn belt with showers. 8-14 day outlook…
- Corn pollination should be starting soon for much of the corn belt and with cooler temps and substantial soil moisture, should be substantial.
- Crop progress:
- Soybean conditions (G/E) -2% to 65%
- Soybeans planted 90% vs 87% last week and 95% 5 year ave. Missouri is at 51% vs 9% last week. Iowa is 80% GE.
- Corn conditions -2% to 71%. Iowa is at 83% GE. A great year in Iowa will make up for poor years elsewhere. Illinois is 70% GE.
- FYI – http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/corn/which-counties-us-grow-most-corn-soybeans
- If you are still in the 360 straddle, hang in there. If corn would rally tomorrow I’ll probably look to lift the put leg.
- Here are a few more spreads I like playing, KC-Chi looks appetizing here.
KC vs Chicago Wheat
Nov Beans – Dec Corn (x2)
Subscribe to This Week In Grain
This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.
Comprehensive Grain & Oilseed Futures Kit!
Whether you are new to the agricultural commodities industry or a seasoned trader, it is important to have a solid understanding of the markets to assist you and your trading strategies. Through our comprehensive futures kit, you will gain a complete overview of the grain & oilseed markets!
THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.
THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.
TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.
YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.
GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.