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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Weekly

Turner’s Take Weekly

March 30, 2015 by Craig Turner

Macro: Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is in the news today as he made some rare public comments. He said when we see economic recovery in the Europe and better growth in emerging markets, combined with the existing economic improvements in the US, that interest rates may finally start climbing higher. While the US is experiencing economic growth, Bernanke noted Europe “is in a depression basically”, so in other words I don’t think he expects a rate hike soon.

Bernanke made another interesting point saying how the Fed may keep on lowering their unemployment rate target before raising rates IF they don’t see increases in wages. I think this makes a lot of sense. Unemployment may be coming down, but without real growth in wages it probably means the employment situation in the US could still use some support.

CNBC has a good article about it here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102546029

US consumer spending was steady in February as people used their savings from the gas pump and chose to pay off debts or save. For some reason the market thinks this is bearish. Maybe in the short term because saving and paying off debt does not create new economic activity (not as much as spending anyway) but in the long term it has to positive. Reuters has a story on it here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/30/us-consumer-spending-idUSKBN0MQ18N20150330

Finally, the Euro is under pressure today and the US Dollar is higher. The long term theme is Europe needs quantitative easing and stimulus while the US will eventually be raising interest rates. After the big short covering rally last week, it seems like the EUR/USD could be consolidating before making the next move lower.

June EUR/USD:

Euro_03_30_2015

 

Grains: The USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports are tomorrow. It seems like we have been waiting weeks for the release. I’m expecting the report to be mildly bullish for corn as we don’t get as many acres as we thought AND stocks could be a little lower than expected primarily due to better feed demand. I think the report will be neutral for soybeans as the USDA confirms a record large new crop soybeans acreage estimate.

After the report comes out tomorrow I will be updating our Supply & Demand Tables, as well as our price outlooks for Corn and Soybeans in Turner’s Take Daily. We continue to hold our new crop soybean put spreads, our short new crop corn straddles, and I still like working the soymeal spread and will be patient with that entry.

 

New Crop Soybeans:

Soybeans_03_30_2015

 

New Crop Corn:

Corn_03_30_2015

 

 

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Risk Disclosure

STRATEGIES USING COMBINATIONS OF POSITIONS, SUCH AS SPREAD AND STRADDLE POSITIONS MAY BE AS RISKY AS TAKING A SIMPLE LONG OR SHORT POSITION.

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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