Markets are reversing the post FOMC moves of yesterday. We can talk about the timing and pace of US interest rate hikes however the fact remains that the US is the only major industrial country that is even considering raising interest rates. The Fed did nothing to turn the bullish trend for the USD, and trends in a number of other markets are influenced by that. Europe continues to be under the gun with the Greek debt situation, with 2 billion Euros in debt maturing on Friday and government salaries and pension payments due at the end of the month. The ECB raised the amount of emergency liquidity available to Greek banks however it remains to be seen whether there will be a way out of this problem. In US news, weekly jobless claims were a non-event. At 9 AM CT is the Philly Fed survey for March; it is forecast to be up 1.8 to 7.0. At 9:30 AM CT is the weekly EIA natural gas storage report; traders look for a withdrawal of 45 bcf last week.
June EMini S&P Futures: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day is anticipated. Watch for resistance at 2092.00. The first downside target is the 2076.00 area. The next day or two will be significant for intermediate term trend- an inability to hold on to / extend gains will likely cause a bigger selloff.
June T Bond Futures: TTT Sell Short day. Watch 163-02 as a pivot point for the downside this morning; a selloff should be a buying opportunity.
June Euro: As I said in yesterday afternoon’s comment, yesterday’s Fed meeting didn’t change the fundamental picture for the USD. Continue to favor the short side of the Euro although the volatility makes it challenging to find a setup. Watch the 1.0700 area as a pivot point this morning- reference price for a short sale?
April Gold: Another “exit b.o. buys” / TTT Sell Short day; there was a high violation sell signal overnight. Resistance is 1162 and then 1165; another break below 1160 could extend the selloff.
May Silver: “exit b.o. buys” / TTT Sell Short day; watch the 1574 level as a pivot point for the downside.
May Coffee: It’s a TTT Sell day and Wednesday was an NR4 day- watch the 9 March high of 142.20 as a reference price for an upside breakout rally.
May Cotton: Taylor Trading Sell Short day. It tested a major Fibonacci retracement level at 63.04; use 62.65 (Weds. high) as the reference price for the SS day move.
May Crude Oil: Sell Short day. Look for resistance at 45.50; breaking support in the 45.00 area could yield a bigger break.
May Natural Gas: Look for a breakout trade opportunity after the 9:30 EIA report.
May Soybeans: It had breakout setup for today; then gapped higher and rallied last night. It then fell back to fill in the gap; look to trade it from the short side today. Look for resistance in the 970 to 972 area.
May Corn: Look to short it- either a rally to the 377 area or a break of old low / Fibonacci retracement support at 373-6.
May Soymeal: Look to short on a retracement to the 325 area.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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