This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, March 13, 2015.
This morning Gold is trading near its recent lows at $1,154 (J5) per troy oz. and its bearish trend (downward spiral) completely intact, with the Weekly, Daily, 4hr, & 1hr charts currently all in agreement. Silver also looks set to re-test recent lows currently trading at $15.50 (K5) per troy oz. with Weekly, Daily, 4hr, & 1hr charts also currently in agreement. We just had a roll-over in the indices with the Emini S&P trading off its recent highs at 2053.00 (M5), Mini Dow 17759 (M5) & Mini Russell at 1235.2 (M5) and looking to be turning a bit bearish (60%), looking for a bit more confirmation. The grains sector really hasn’t been very exciting, unless you consider sideways action exciting with Corn trading at $3.8925bu (K5), Soybeans at $9.87bu (K5) and I’m leaning about (80% bearish), however maybe a straddle would be the best call. Wheat looks to be the most bullish at $5.11bu (K5), fresh angel cross on the 4hr chart on March 11th. Natural Gas is trending back down at $2.69 (J5) mmBtu, with Crude Oil also remaining tremendously bearish re-testing its recent lows at $46.09 (J5) per barrel.
From my standpoint the theme seems to be a strong U.S. Dollar and lower commodity prices across the board. However, with a parabolic move in the U.S. Dollar I would hope for some back n’ fill action, stabilizing commodity prices for a period.
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STRATEGIES USING COMBINATIONS OF POSITIONS, SUCH AS SPREAD AND STRADDLE POSITIONS MAY BE AS RISKY AS TAKING A SIMPLE LONG OR SHORT POSITION.
EXAMPLES OF SEASONAL PRICE MOVES OR EXTREME MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY THAT SUCH MOVES OR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON OCCURRENCES OR LIKELY TO OCCUR.
In The Markets
Emini S&P (ES)
Market Comments: I think we are at time of possible bearish divergence, it’s yet to confirm, however working on it. If it keeps trading at this level or lower, we should have confirmation within the next 4-7 trading days.
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 2057.90 | -4.50 | -0.22% | 1301883 |
| 20-Day | 2090.30 | -17.75 | -0.85% | 1253039 |
| 50-Day | 2055.00 | -10.50 | -0.51% | 1562346 |
| 100-Day | 2038.98 | +193.25 | +10.32% | 989097 |
| 200-Day | 1990.26 | +179.75 | +9.53% | 494952 |
| Year to Date | 2055.06 | +13.75 | +0.67% | 1577164 |
Gold (GGC)
Market Comments: Bearish trend still very much intact, and really has been for about the last year. Gold trading at a key support area and possibly going to re-test November 7th lows at $1,137 eventually. I would have a tough time adding new shorts at these levels to what I have already placed, however if it pops up I might re-consider.
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 1157.0 | -8.3 | -0.71% | 131585 |
| 20-Day | 1191.5 | -64.7 | -5.3% | 130708 |
| 50-Day | 1226.1 | -45.2 | -3.76% | 96261 |
| 100-Day | 1211.9 | -84.3 | -6.8% | 50020 |
| 200-Day | 1243.7 | -105.5 | -8.36% | 25386 |
| Year to Date | 1227.0 | -28.9 | -2.44% | 98150 |
Corn – May (ZC)
Market Comments: Still painfully bearish on Corn (70%), however it’s going that other direction, Sideways.
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 389-0 | +2-6 | +0.71% | 115608 |
| 20-Day | 390-1 | -2-2 | -0.58% | 130604 |
| 50-Day | 393-2 | -26-2 | -6.33% | 85731 |
| 100-Day | 396-2 | +18-6 | +5.07% | 54787 |
| 200-Day | 398-3 | -96-2 | -19.85% | 30492 |
| Year to Date | 393-0 | -17-0 | -4.19% | 86922 |
Crude Oil – April (GCL)
Market Comments: Crude never did create a bullish break (Angel Cross) and now continues its downward trend. I would look to (Short) on any bounce with proper risk/reward management in place.
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 48.06 | -2.84 | -5.72% | 320184 |
| 20-Day | 50.17 | -5.39 | -10.33% | 370094 |
| 50-Day | 49.76 | -8.28 | -15.04% | 210947 |
| 100-Day | 60.03 | -33.82 | -41.97% | 114868 |
| 200-Day | 76.66 | -47.97 | -50.63% | 59625 |
| Year to Date | 49.67 | -7.49 | -13.8% | 214773 |
U.S. Dollar – June (DX-M)
Market Comments: Incredibly impressive. Last time we first broke above 100 was in 1997, then bounced around for a few years, then really broke out above 100 around the year 2000 till 2001. The last cycle for the U.S. Dollar trading above 100 lasted for about 4 years.
The Week Ahead
- 3/16 – Industrial Production 9:15AM ET
- 3/17 – Housing Starts 8:30AM ET
- 3/18 – EIA Petro Status Report 10:30AM ET
- 3/19 – FOMC Meeting 2:00PM ET
- 3/19 – Chair Press Conference 2:30PM ET
- 3/19 – FOMC Forecasts 2:30PM ET
- 3/20 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
- 3/20 – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 10:00AM ET
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