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Home / Futures Blog / The Rath Overlay (Mar 13 2015)

The Rath Overlay (Mar 13 2015)

March 16, 2015 by Drew Rathgeber

This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, March 13, 2015.


This morning Gold is trading near its recent lows at $1,154 (J5) per troy oz. and its bearish trend (downward spiral) completely intact, with the Weekly, Daily, 4hr, & 1hr charts currently all in agreement. Silver also looks set to re-test recent lows currently trading at $15.50 (K5) per troy oz. with Weekly, Daily, 4hr, & 1hr charts also currently in agreement. We just had a roll-over in the indices with the Emini S&P trading off its recent highs at 2053.00 (M5), Mini Dow 17759 (M5) & Mini Russell at 1235.2 (M5) and looking to be turning a bit bearish (60%), looking for a bit more confirmation. The grains sector really hasn’t been very exciting, unless you consider sideways action exciting with Corn trading at $3.8925bu (K5), Soybeans at $9.87bu (K5) and I’m leaning about (80% bearish), however maybe a straddle would be the best call. Wheat looks to be the most bullish at $5.11bu (K5), fresh angel cross on the 4hr chart on March 11th. Natural Gas is trending back down at $2.69 (J5) mmBtu, with Crude Oil also remaining tremendously bearish re-testing its recent lows at $46.09 (J5) per barrel.

From my standpoint the theme seems to be a strong U.S. Dollar and lower commodity prices across the board. However, with a parabolic move in the U.S. Dollar I would hope for some back n’ fill action, stabilizing commodity prices for a period.

I’m also now using Moore Research ‘MRCI’ for their seasonal trades and highly recommend to all of my clients & prospects click for your No-Cost 14 day trial ‘Moore Research’.

STRATEGIES USING COMBINATIONS OF POSITIONS, SUCH AS SPREAD AND STRADDLE POSITIONS MAY BE AS RISKY AS TAKING A SIMPLE LONG OR SHORT POSITION.


EXAMPLES OF SEASONAL PRICE MOVES OR EXTREME MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY THAT SUCH MOVES OR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON OCCURRENCES OR LIKELY TO OCCUR.

In The Markets

Emini S&P (ES)

eminisp

Market Comments: I think we are at time of possible bearish divergence, it’s yet to confirm, however working on it. If it keeps trading at this level or lower, we should have confirmation within the next 4-7 trading days.

Period Moving Average Price Change Percent Change Average Volume
5-Day 2057.90 -4.50 -0.22% 1301883
20-Day 2090.30 -17.75 -0.85% 1253039
50-Day 2055.00 -10.50 -0.51% 1562346
100-Day 2038.98 +193.25 +10.32% 989097
200-Day 1990.26 +179.75 +9.53% 494952
Year to Date 2055.06 +13.75 +0.67% 1577164

Gold (GGC)

apr-gold

Market Comments: Bearish trend still very much intact, and really has been for about the last year. Gold trading at a key support area and possibly going to re-test November 7th lows at $1,137 eventually. I would have a tough time adding new shorts at these levels to what I have already placed, however if it pops up I might re-consider.

Period Moving Average Price Change Percent Change Average Volume
5-Day 1157.0 -8.3 -0.71% 131585
20-Day 1191.5 -64.7 -5.3% 130708
50-Day 1226.1 -45.2 -3.76% 96261
100-Day 1211.9 -84.3 -6.8% 50020
200-Day 1243.7 -105.5 -8.36% 25386
Year to Date 1227.0 -28.9 -2.44% 98150

Corn – May (ZC)

may-corn

Market Comments: Still painfully bearish on Corn (70%), however it’s going that other direction, Sideways.

Period Moving Average Price Change Percent Change Average Volume
5-Day 389-0 +2-6 +0.71% 115608
20-Day 390-1 -2-2 -0.58% 130604
50-Day 393-2 -26-2 -6.33% 85731
100-Day 396-2 +18-6 +5.07% 54787
200-Day 398-3 -96-2 -19.85% 30492
Year to Date 393-0 -17-0 -4.19% 86922

Crude Oil – April (GCL)

apr-crude

Market Comments: Crude never did create a bullish break (Angel Cross) and now continues its downward trend. I would look to (Short) on any bounce with proper risk/reward management in place.

Period Moving Average Price Change Percent Change Average Volume
5-Day 48.06 -2.84 -5.72% 320184
20-Day 50.17 -5.39 -10.33% 370094
50-Day 49.76 -8.28 -15.04% 210947
100-Day 60.03 -33.82 -41.97% 114868
200-Day 76.66 -47.97 -50.63% 59625
Year to Date 49.67 -7.49 -13.8% 214773

U.S. Dollar – June (DX-M)

jun-usd

Market Comments: Incredibly impressive. Last time we first broke above 100 was in 1997, then bounced around for a few years, then really broke out above 100 around the year 2000 till 2001. The last cycle for the U.S. Dollar trading above 100 lasted for about 4 years.

The Week Ahead

  • 3/16 – Industrial Production 9:15AM ET
  • 3/17 – Housing Starts 8:30AM ET
  • 3/18 – EIA Petro Status Report 10:30AM ET
  • 3/19 – FOMC Meeting 2:00PM ET
  • 3/19 – Chair Press Conference 2:30PM ET
  • 3/19 – FOMC Forecasts 2:30PM ET
  • 3/20 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
  • 3/20 – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 10:00AM ET

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Risk Disclosure

STRATEGIES USING COMBINATIONS OF POSITIONS, SUCH AS SPREAD AND STRADDLE POSITIONS MAY BE AS RISKY AS TAKING A SIMPLE LONG OR SHORT POSITION.

EXAMPLES OF SEASONAL PRICE MOVES OR EXTREME MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY THAT SUCH MOVES OR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON OCCURRENCES OR LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: The Rath Overlay

About Drew Rathgeber

Drew began his career at one of the nation’s largest physical spot bullion dealers in 2003. From there he made the transition into commodity futures in 2006. Because he has worked on both sides of the fence, ‘Spot’ and ‘Futures’, he has an astute understanding of how the precious metals markets can work for Retail Traders, Hedgers, and Commercials. He can use this knowledge to help investors and traders alike. Drew also has years of experience in electronic software execution, automated systems, hedging, newsletters, options strategies and outright futures contracts. Through his expertise in these areas, he can guide you and answer all of your questions while teaching you how to manage risk.

Today you can see Drew working in many different capacities in the commodity futures markets. You can even see his weekly IMA Live precious metals commentary every Tuesday and Thursday or sign-up for his weekly newsletter, the “Rath Overlay”, which highlights commodity futures markets and possible future events using his time-tested yet simple trading strategy.

Drew grew up near the popular surf beaches of Southern California. Drew is still an avid surfer and snowboarder. Currently his latest craze is United States Masters Swimming (USMS). He is a nationally ranked swimmer and enjoys competitive open water distance swimming.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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