Stocks are staging a recovery rally although there’s no data to point to as a catalyst. European equities are higher on thoughts that the weakness in the Euro will boost European export prospects. China posted weak industrial production and retail sales reports; this raised hopes that the PBOC will get more aggressive about expanding stimulus measures. The only data due today is the weekly EIA petroleum inventory report at 9:30 AM CT; traders look for crude oil stocks to be up 4.2 million barrels with a draw in gasoline and distillate stocks. We also get the results of US bank stress tests (not sure when) and a 10 Year T Note auction at Noon CT.
March EMini S&P Futures: It’s a “cover breakout sales day so a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day is anticipated. For the time being I would watch the last overnight low of 2046.75 as a reference price with 2055.85 (50 day SMA) to be resistance. 2045.75 is a major Fibonacci retracement level and significant for determining the longer term trend.
March EMini Russell Futures: Treat today as a Taylor Trading Sell day- it can rally today and we should anticipate a Sell Short day for Wednesday. 1214.10 is old low and Fibonacci retracement resistance.
June T Bonds: Yesterday afternoon I was talking to a client about the bonds. We agreed that we should be looking for a Sell Short day trade for today, and it’s been a textbook move thus far. Yesterday’s high of 158-25 was the reference price; this lined up with old low resistance from mid-February. 157-03 is the first downside target.
June Yen: It’s the Sell day of the TTT cycle however with the daily trend down I might press it and look to sell today- look to be short if it’s below the Fibonacci retracement level at 8244.
June British Pound: I would look to short IF it takes out yesterday’s low of 1.5018.
June Canadian Dollar: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day; this tells us to anticipate a Taylor Trading Buy day, with 7869 as the reference price. However, I would be careful of the long side as it looks to be on the verge of more downside.
June Australian Dollar: Another “cover b.o. sales” / TTT Buy day. Watch 7571 (the previous 2015 low) as the reference price. Conservative traders should look for an opportunity to short it.
April Gold: Keep trading gold from the short side; look to short rallies into the low 1160s.
May Cocoa: It gapped lower on the open; rallying back over 2902 (Tuesday low) could boost a recovery rally.
May Sugar: Another market with a TTT Buy day recovery rally. I’d like to short it at higher prices (watch 13.18 and 13.31) however it’s been a slow mover lately.
May Coffee: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). Watch 1.3380 as a pivot point for the downside; watch for a break of the session low (1.3290) as a reference price for more downside.
April Crude Oil: The TTT would tell us to look for a Buy day today. I would prefer to stand aside for now and look for a potential breakout trade after the inventory report.
May Soybeans: Look to get short on a rally to the 1000-0 area.
May Wheat: Watch the 500-0 area as a pivot point today.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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