This is a sample of Brian’s email newsletter, The Cullen Outlook. This is the Pre-Dawn Targeting portion from earlier this morning for Wednesday, March 11th.
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Happy webinar Wednesday! Time to ring the mid-week bell!!!
Come join me this afternoon at 2:00p (cst) if you can for an hour of chart break-downs and trade idea recaps:
Positions we have on:
SHORT April LIVE CATTLE from 154.50
SHORT May SOYMEAL from 335.0 (filled in the overnight)
We saw a pretty substantial sell-off in this market on Friday, -4’00 points in one day! Now over the past 2 days we have seen it rally back to nearly where it opened on Friday morning. And I like the idea of gettting short if it can muster up just a little bit more to the 159’00 level. This level is where it tried to find some support March 3rd-5th matching the bounce that it saw in mid-February, but could not before selling off. I look for this old support level to become new resistance. The risk would be somewhat close near 159’14 (around $500.00) while the initial objective would be the 157’00 support from late December or even a quick re-test of last Friday’s low near 155’00. (sign up to see the BONDS chart that I am looking at)
April CRUDE OIL:
This market has seen some nice back and forth price action for the past month and a half now and I have been watching and trading it with some of you. It hasnt had any big continued directional moves but it has been choppy and I would like to get involved. That being said, it is a market that has taken away as fast as it has given, so expect some aggressive trade management if we get involved in the newsletter. If you decide to get involved on your own, move your stops and don’t be greedy! Take what the market gives you when it gives it to you…you can always get back involved! Last traded at 48.45 and we have the weeky inventory number out at 9:30a (cst), so let’s see if this provides the rally that we need to get there…be ready!
To get an idea started this morning, I like the 49.75 level to look to get short using a mini contract and we will risk no more than $1.25 from entry ($625.00). I think a conservative objective could be a test of recent support at 48.00 while a longer term objective, if we get some selling pressure could be another run at 45.00 from late January.
Why 49.75? If you look at the price action in just 2015 and drew a horizontal line through it, 49.75 would be 50% fibonacci off the 2015 high/low. You might look at the April Crude chart and think “well, what if we don’t rally and break through support at 48.00, would it be an idea to get short there off that support not holding?” And I say short answer, yes! but I wanted to play getting short after seeing a small rally if possible. (sign up to see the CRUDE chart that I am looking at)
I moved the stop last week inside of 30.00 when we touched 29.60 on Thursday last week and we got bumped out at 29.98…and that was a shame! We have done nothing but trade lower the past 3 days and I would like to get involved on the next positive price action we see! The chart still looks like it did when we put on the short position. In my opinion, it looks like it wants to trade down further but I was hoping to see somewhat of a bounce before I got involved.
***Sometimes you move your stops too close/too fast and sometimes you dont move your stops close enough or fast enough. It happens to us all! Trading these markets is not easy and there are definitely some bumps and bruises along the path of learning and becoming better. The important thing is to be consistent. If you are an aggressive trader who likes to move stops, do it. If you like to sit back more conservative and wait for further price action, do that. In my opinion, if you are consistent in your approach, you give yourself the best chance of having the averages all work themselves out in the long run.***
Feel free to trade these ideas on your own when you want…
…or call/email your DT broker if you want to talk about an idea of yours that you want to get involved in!
LET’S DO THIS!
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The Cullen Outlook is a futures trading newsletter for those wishing to follow the moves of Brian Cullen, an experienced technical trader. He’ll identify charts setups, provide direct trade recommendations and plans, and share other useful insights to help you become a better technical trader.
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