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Home / Futures Blog / Beyond the “Spotlight”

Beyond the “Spotlight”

February 2, 2015 by Don DeBartolo

For the Week of February 02, 2015

The Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.

Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

Let’s review three contracts that are setup in a Hi-Lo Breakout Formation. This formation seeks to trade opportunities with price momentum in a prevailing trend. For more information on this trading formation visit: http://www.gbemembers.com/education/hilo.php

30-Year Treasury Bonds

The March 2015 30-Year Treasury Bonds twelve-month contract high was established Friday at 151’28. A close above the high triggers a long entry based on the Hi-Lo Breakout Formation. Trend Seeker (a U.S. Chart Company tool to help identify market trend) is Up with a Strong ranking. The MACD, a trend indicator, signals a contract that has strong, but waning upside movement. The Stochastic indicator, a momentum indicator, signals a contract that has upward momentum but might be “overbought.” A 20-day and 50-day Moving Average are widening, this is a bullish signal. An upside target is a Wave Projection Price of 154’09. A potential stop loss can be placed below several recent contract lows with the 149’10 being the lowest, albeit with more risk.

Kansas City Wheat

The March 2015 Kansas City Wheat twelve-month contract low was established on 1/29/15 at 533’2. A close below the low triggers a shorty entry based on the Hi-Lo Breakout Formation. Trend Seeker (a U.S. Chart Company tool to help identify market trend) is Down with a Weak ranking. The MACD, a trend indicator, signals a contract that has strong and continuing downside movement. The Stochastic indicator, a momentum indicator, signals a contract that has downward momentum but might be “oversold.” A 20-day and 50-day Moving Average already crossed over in mid-January, a bearish signal. A downside target is the 500’0 price level. A potential stop loss can be placed above the 549’4 (1/30/15) high.

Sugar

The May 2015 Sugar twelve-month contract low was established on 1/05/15 at 14.45. A close below the low triggers a shorty entry based on the Hi-Lo Breakout Formation. Trend Seeker (a U.S. Chart Company tool to help identify market trend) is Down with a Weak ranking. The MACD, a trend indicator, just crossed over last week signaling the start of a potential down trend. The Stochastic indicator, a momentum indicator, is above the baseline and signals a contract that has further downward momentum. A 20-day and 50-day Moving Average are converging and nearing a cross over, a bearish signal. Reviewing a monthly chart, prices haven’t been this low in this market since 2009. There appears to be support near the 10.00 price level. This can be a downside target. A potential stop loss can be placed above Friday’s high of 15.24.

Risk Disclosure

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Trade Spotlight

About Don DeBartolo

Don C. DeBartolo is a Series 3 licensed broker registered with the National Futures Association (NFA). As a former arbitrage clerk in the S&P 500 futures pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Don has floor trading experience. Taking his trade execution expertise and ability to navigate a fast-paced environment, Don transitioned to the brokerage side of the business. Since 2005, he has worked at Daniels Trading, a brokerage firm in the heart of the financial district in Chicago. His responsibilities as a broker include providing market analysis, trade execution, and money management to his clients around the world. In March 2010, he developed a formal trade advisory for clients of the firm seeking specific trade recommendations and subsequent risk management.

Due to his widespread proficiency and experience with the futures and commodity options markets, he is able to offer his clients timely insight, specialized trade recommendations, and educational information through various videos and writings.

Studying at Loyola University Chicago, Don discovered the international sport of rugby. Still today, he plays for the Chicago Griffins, a member of the highest league of rugby competition in the United States. Skill and discipline are two traits that carry over from the pitch to the trading screens.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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