Markets were spooked by the January CPI report for the EU; which showed a larger than expected drop of 0.6% y/y. This increased concerns that Europe is in a deflation trap. There was some friendly data out of Europe as the EU unemployment rate fell in December and German retail sales rose. In the US, the advance estimate for Q4 GDP showed a gain of 2.6%, lower than the forecast 3.0%. The first GDP estimate often ends up being significantly adjusted in further releases. At 8:45 AM CT we get the Jan. Chicago PMI report; it is expected to show a -1.3 point decline to 57.5 after a big drop in December. Boston Fed Chair Tarullo has a speech on “macro prudential policy objectives” scheduled at 11:45 AM CT; he is the first FOMC member to speak after this week’s meeting. It might be worth a listen to see if he comments on Fed policy.
March EMini S&P Futures: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell day. With the daily trend down I might look to press the downside- the 2007.75 area should be resistance and 2001 a pivot point on the downside.
March EMini Russell Futures: Look to be short here as well –there’s resistance in the 1182.00 area and 1178.50 is a pivot point on the down side.
March T Bonds: Thursday was an inside day- look for a directional move today. Look to be long if it’s under 150-28; I might also look at buying if it rallies above the session high of 151-09.
March Euro: Breakout setup (NR7, doji) – use yesterday’s high (1.1372) and low (1.1266) as reference prices. It’s been range bound this week; will today be the day it moves?
April Gold: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day is anticipated. The break held support at the 20 day EMA; there is resistance at the session high of 1267.50. Don’t get attached to the long side; the daily trend is turning down.
March Copper: Breakout setup- will this be the day it takes out the recent lows?
March Cocoa: Small Taylor Trading Buy day rally; looking to sell it.
March Cotton: Breakout setup- look to short if it takes out the session low of 59.05.
March Crude Oil: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). Use the overnight high (45.21) and low (44.43) as reference prices.
March Natural Gas: Another “cover b.o. sales” / Taylor Trading Buy day; 2.672 is the reference price. A rally should be a selling opportunity; the old low at 2.765 is resistance.
March Soybeans: Breakout setup (ID, NR7) – watch the Tuesday low of 966-2 as a reference price on the down side.
March Wheat: ROC is up at a sell signal level- look to short if it breaks below the overnight low of 507-0.
March Soymeal: Breakout setup (ID, NR7), use yesterday’s high (340.80) and low (336.10) as reference prices.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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