Stocks are recovering after yesterday’s post- FOMC swoon. I thought the FOMC statement was actually stock friendly; there was nothing to indicate an acceleration of the timeframe to begin raising rates. Additionally, they said the Fed will factor the global economy into their analysis. With the degree of connection between the US and our trading partners, this move is overdue. For now, it means the weak economic conditions outside the US will be a factor in delaying rate hikes. In US news, jobless claims posted a huge drop last week; this was likely affected by the MLK holiday. At 9:30 AM CT is the weekly EIA natural gas storage report; traders look for a historically small draw of 120 bcf last week. The slow world economy is likely to continue to weigh on commodity prices, Fed news notwithstanding.
March EMini S&P Futures: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day; reference prices are 1991.25 (Weds. low) and 1987.75 (overnight low). Be careful with the long side; it has tended to sell off into the close recently.
March EMini Russell Futures: Another TTT Buy day; 1168.00 is the reference price.
March T Bonds: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a Taylor Trading Sell Short day is anticipated. Watch the 16 Jan. high of 151-10 as the reference price; 150-14 is the first downside target. It’s at an interesting point here- will it take out the double top? The 5 and 10 year T Notes appear to be making a lower high (for now).
March Yen: Wednesday was a doji bar with range contraction- look for a breakout move today. Look to sell if it breaks under yesterday’s low of 8460.
March Euro: Breakout setup (ID, NR4). For breakout reference prices use 1.1266 (session low); on the upside start with 1.1332 (session high).
March British Pound: Wednesday was an inside day; we can look for either a Taylor Trading Buy day (1.5130 is the reference price) or a downside breakout (use the 1.5100 area for that).
March Canadian Dollar: By the Taylor Trading Technique today is a Buy day, 7970 is the reference price. We’re fighting the longer term trend here, although the short term trends point up.
Feb. Gold: (I’m going to roll to April for tomorrow). It sold off out of a breakout setup. Holding below 1272.00 should keep the pressure on; watch 1266.40 as a reference price. It looks like the bulls may be losing control.
March Cocoa: It’s a “cover breakout sales” / TTT Buy day; I’d like to see a rally to short it higher.
March Sugar: Look to be short if it stays below 14.93.
March Crude Oil: It’s a TTT Buy day; watch 44.35 (26 Jan low) as the reference price. Conservative traders might want to wait for a rally to short it.
April Live Cattle: Breakout setup (NR7, doji); use the Wednesday high and low as reference prices.
March Soybeans: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). 977-6 is the reference price for an upside breakout; look to sell a rally.
March Wheat: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day; 503-0 is the reference price for a Taylor Trading Buy day. I’d like to see a rally in order to short it at higher prices.
March Corn: Yesterday saw a downside breakout below the recent low at 376-0; let’s see if we can get a rally to retest that level to get another opportunity to short it.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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