The Swiss National Bank decided to stop defending the CHF cap against the Euro; this led to the biggest one day currency move I can remember in my 25+ years in the business. The SNB move comes a week before the ECB meeting where it is speculated the ECB will implement a new QE plan, which would add to the pressure on the CHF, so this move may be a prudent way to withdraw before a bigger crisis. The currency turmoil boosted metals prices while commodities got an additional boost from a surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. US data was mixed so far today; weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, PPI fell in December (lower energy prices) while the Empire State survey was a plus. At 9 AM CT is the Philly Fed survey for January; it is expected to be down 4.5 to 20.0. At 9:30 AM is the weekly EIA natural gas storage report, which is expected to show a withdrawal of 220 bcf last week.
March EMini S&P Futures: Yesterday was a “Z” day (I wrote about that here). I suspect we may get a similar session today- think about buying breaks and selling rallies. We should likely be thinking about a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day for Friday.
March T Bonds: I’d like to get long. Ideally we will see a TTT Sell Short day today to set up tomorrow for a Buy day. Watch 149-08 as a pivot point today.
March British Pound: Taylor Trading Sell Short day. 1.5263 is the SS day reference price; 1.5188 is a pivot point for extending a selloff.
March Silver: TTT Sell day and the daily trend is up- I would consider buying if it rallies above the session high of 1724. A rally would need to clear the Dec. high of 1735.5.
March Cocoa: It’s a TT Sell day however with the daily trend up I would consider buying on a rally above the recent double top at 3016.
March Sugar: Key off last week’s 15.17 high, looking for: 1. An upside breakout or 2. A failed rally (Taylor Trading Sell Short day).
March Coffee: Sell Short day; a selloff should represent a buying opportunity.
March Crude Oil: It’s a Taylor Trading Sell Short day. Last night’s rally was continuation from yesterday afternoon; now we need to find a setup to short it. I’d watch the 50.00 as the reference price; look to short it if it drops under there.
March Natural Gas: Sell Short day; 3.278 is the reference price. The weekly inventory report is out at 9:30 AM CT; be alert for volatility and a potential breakout move after it.
Feb. Live Cattle: Taylor Trading Sell day; the rally got a boost after a successful test of the last low at 155.10. I’m looking for a place to short it.
Feb. Lean Hogs: Breakout setup. On the upside watch the Weds. high of 76.50; on the downside use the Tuesday low of 75.02.
March Soybeans: As with crude oil, there was overnight strength in continuation from yesterday’s closing rally. I would look to short if it drops back under 1011-4.
March Corn: Look to sell a rally if it has one- I’m watching the Fibonacci retracement level at 391-4 as a reference price.
March Soymeal: The old low level of 340 area should be resistance on a rally- look to short against it.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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