The Swiss National Bank decided to stop defending the CHF cap against the Euro; this led to the biggest one day currency move I can remember in my 25+ years in the business. The SNB move comes a week before the ECB meeting where it is speculated the ECB will implement a new QE plan, which would add to the pressure on the CHF, so this move may be a prudent way to withdraw before a bigger crisis. The currency turmoil boosted metals prices while commodities got an additional boost from a surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. US data was mixed so far today; weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, PPI fell in December (lower energy prices) while the Empire State survey was a plus. At 9 AM CT is the Philly Fed survey for January; it is expected to be down 4.5 to 20.0. At 9:30 AM is the weekly EIA natural gas storage report, which is expected to show a withdrawal of 220 bcf last week.
March EMini S&P Futures: Yesterday was a “Z” day (I wrote about that here). I suspect we may get a similar session today- think about buying breaks and selling rallies. We should likely be thinking about a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day for Friday.
March T Bonds: I’d like to get long. Ideally we will see a TTT Sell Short day today to set up tomorrow for a Buy day. Watch 149-08 as a pivot point today.
March British Pound: Taylor Trading Sell Short day. 1.5263 is the SS day reference price; 1.5188 is a pivot point for extending a selloff.
March Silver: TTT Sell day and the daily trend is up- I would consider buying if it rallies above the session high of 1724. A rally would need to clear the Dec. high of 1735.5.
March Cocoa: It’s a TT Sell day however with the daily trend up I would consider buying on a rally above the recent double top at 3016.
March Sugar: Key off last week’s 15.17 high, looking for: 1. An upside breakout or 2. A failed rally (Taylor Trading Sell Short day).
March Coffee: Sell Short day; a selloff should represent a buying opportunity.
March Crude Oil: It’s a Taylor Trading Sell Short day. Last night’s rally was continuation from yesterday afternoon; now we need to find a setup to short it. I’d watch the 50.00 as the reference price; look to short it if it drops under there.
March Natural Gas: Sell Short day; 3.278 is the reference price. The weekly inventory report is out at 9:30 AM CT; be alert for volatility and a potential breakout move after it.
Feb. Live Cattle: Taylor Trading Sell day; the rally got a boost after a successful test of the last low at 155.10. I’m looking for a place to short it.
Feb. Lean Hogs: Breakout setup. On the upside watch the Weds. high of 76.50; on the downside use the Tuesday low of 75.02.
March Soybeans: As with crude oil, there was overnight strength in continuation from yesterday’s closing rally. I would look to short if it drops back under 1011-4.
March Corn: Look to sell a rally if it has one- I’m watching the Fibonacci retracement level at 391-4 as a reference price.
March Soymeal: The old low level of 340 area should be resistance on a rally- look to short against it.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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