News flow was light last night. The Shanghai stock index rose to a 4 ¾ year high on expectations that China will expand economic stimulus. The Russian Ruble has stabilized for the time being; this is helping European equities. Europe also got a boost after comments by ECB VP Costancio that he sees negative inflation rates (deflation) in the coming months and the ECB needs to use all tools available to prevent a deflationary spiral. There’s no significant US data due today; at 9 AM CT is Nov existing home sales report; it is expected to show a -1.1% decline to 5.20 million, reversing most of October’s +1.5% increase to 5.26 million.
March EMini S&P Futures: Friday was an NR7 day- will we see a breakout move today? Watch 2078.25 (Friday high) as the reference price on the upside. I don’t really expect much of a move today- it’s a holiday week and there’s no economic data that is likely to move the markets.
March T Bonds: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell day. It couldn’t clear resistance at 144-27 last night; a drop under the Fibonacci retracement level at 143-30 might extend a selloff.
March Euro: TTT Buy day. Clearing the old low at 1.2255 helped the rally; 1.2295 is the next upside target. This rally should be a selling opportunity.
March Canadian Dollar: Watch Friday’s low of .8576 as the reference price for either a downside breakout or a Taylor Trading Buy day.
March Australian Dollar: Back to back inside days and Friday was an NR4- will there be a breakout move today?
Feb. Gold: Breakout setup (ID, NR7); watch 1193.20 (Friday low) as the first downside reference price.
March Silver: Another breakout setup (ID, NR4); I would consider shorting a break under the overnight low at 15.965.
March Cocoa: It sold off after a gap higher open; the 2960 area (1o Dec. high) should be support.
March Sugar: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). It tried to rally and failed (thus far); will it break now? Watch the session low of 15.00 as the first reference price for a downside breakout.
March Coffee: Consider shorting on a break under the session low of 173.00.
March Cotton: It rallied out of a breakout setup; clearing 61.25 (12 Dec. high) helped the rally. Will this be the time it holds above the 61.00 area? That could help the bulls.
Feb. Crude Oil: Consider being short if it’s under the 56.50 area.
Jan. Soybeans: Taylor Trading Buy day but the relatively high range close makes it a less than straightforward setup. 1022-4 is the “official reference price.
March Wheat: TTT Buy day; the Friday low of 629-2 is the reference price. Rally objectives are 645-4 and then 649-0.
Jan Soymeal: Breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji).
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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