12/10 Pre-Dawn Update

This is a sample of Brian’s email newsletter, The Cullen Outlook.  This is the Pre-Dawn Update portion for Wednesday December 10th.

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Good Morning-

It’s Webinar Wednesday!  Pull up a stool and join us at the CHART WATCH! webinar this afternoon at 2:00p (cst)

https://www.danielstrading.com/webinar/chart-watch-with-the-cullen-outlook/

 

Heads Up!  We have a USDA # this morning at 11:00a (cst)  I have a few ideas in the grain markets that I will be getting involved in after the number has been released.  I would like to look at getting short the Soybeans again if all goes well and I have a KC Wheat idea below.  If you have any grain positions, this morning you will want to be paying attention.

 

March Sugar:

After initially breaking through the support level of 15.50 we have seen very little follow through.  We failed to take out the 15.00 price and at the start of the week, the market has taken a turn back to the upside and I would like to get involved LONG.  The risk would be just below the 15.00 level and the objective would above the recent resistance of 16.40 (both depend on your level of aggressiveness)  The down trendline will come into play around 15.90 and this will be where I look to add an additional contract if we get the move we are looking for.

March Cocoa:

There are 2 bear flags on this chart, the last one being very long and drawn out (I still look at it as a flag).   It has been very steadily trading higher for the past 16 trading sessions…until yesterday when we saw it break out to the upside.  We were able to trade above the 29.20 level and touched just above the 29.50 level, which were both resistance levels in late October and early November.  If this move does continue into today’s trading session and the stochastic on the chart rolls over we begin to trade lower, I want to get involved in the downside move.  The risk will be just above the trendline at 30.00  OR, you can look at the OLD support level of 30.20 to see if this provides NEW resistance.   If this rally fails, I believe the first stop is 28.00 ultimately on its way to 26.50, old January support.

Kansas City Wheat:

This market was fundamentally strong as it finished out November on an amazing run to 6.60 With the 3 days break we saw last week and the continuation so far this week, I would like to get involved LONG if we can see 6.15 level today. This is the OLD resistance from October and November. Let’s see if it becomes NEW support. The trendline is not very old but it may also be supportive at the 6.15 level as well.  I included the 20 day moving average as a blue dotted line and we are resting on that this morning at 6.18-ish.  The risk would be below the Thanksgiving week lows (green arrow on the chart) around 6.00 The objectives could be around 6.60 and up to the 7.00 level.

March Swiss Franc:

Yesterday’s positive price action took us back up to the down trendline that I have been paying attention to for the past month.  The 20 day moving average on the chart comes in around the 1.0350 level and this is where I would like to work orders to get SHORT.  With no mini contract available, my stop level will be close.  Over the trendline above the 1.0400 level I think is plenty.

 

For both the Kansas City Wheat and the Swiss Franc ideas above, this may be perfect charts to make your stop order a 2 lot.  If those trendlines fail to hold both of these markets in check, we may see a breakout move opposite of what the initial idea is. I did a DT Broker Tip video on this topic of 2 lot stops recently.  This was my first attempt at doing a Broker Tip video.  Feedback is always welcome when new ideas are explored.

Check it out here: https://www.danielstrading.com/futures-trading-education/2014/11/25/broker-tip-brian-cullen-2-lot-stop-order/

Positions we currently have on:  Both of these ideas are relatively close to where we entered or better, so if you are still thinking of getting involved in them, the opportunity exists.

• Short Cotton from 60.00
• Long 2 mini Natty Gas from 3.70

Have a great Wednesday.  If you are trading with us today, we will speak with you later!

 

LET’S DO THIS!

BC

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