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Home / Futures Blog / The Rath Overlay (Dec 05 2014)

The Rath Overlay (Dec 05 2014)

December 9, 2014 by Drew Rathgeber

This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, December 05, 2014.


Gold is currently trading at $1,190.00 (G5) per troy oz., and broke through what I feel is critical support at $1,200, which didn’t hold. Gold has had high volatility this week, shaking out the weak hands, to continue its downward trend. Silver is currently trading at $16.30 (G5) per troy oz and traded super low down into the low $14.00 range, again this market really rattled the weak hands, and probably blew many retail speculators out with losses. The indices are are still trending up, and right at overhead resistance 2072.75 (Z4), I’ve said it many times, the daily charts are very wonky looking. Grains on the short term timeframe are trending slightly higher with Corn at $3.8750 (H5), Soybeans starting to look a bit weak at $10.0725 (F5) with a possible new death cross, will confirm in the next few trading days, and Wheat coming in at $5.8350bu (H5), and still looks the strongest in the grain complex. Natural Gas really came off its highs, now trading down to $3.675 (H4) mmBtu, with the slight anticipated warm December in the North East, and hitting the double top at $4.60, it was inevitable to come down, Crude Oil after the OPEC meeting last Thursday has dropped significantly to $66.57 per barrel, with no real bottom insight for now, the OPEC cartel has agreed to keep pumping at current production levels.

‘Get to know’, Drew Rathgeber clicking here for his latest interview.

In The News

Shale Liquidations Begin? Sub-$50 Oil Appears In North Dakota

When ISIS dared to steal and sell oil at below market rates, they were dire pirates that needed to be destroyed (and anyone who dared to buy it was pariah). So when crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota fell to $49.69 a barrel on Nov. 28 (according to the marketing arm of Plains All American Pipeline), you know there is an issue in the US Shale industry. As one analyst notes, “to a producer in Wyoming, if Brent’s $70 then I’m at $50, then I have to start asking does it economically make sense to keep drilling, they might start reallocating capital, you might see projects slowed or shut down.” (more)

Morning Market Review by Bryce Knorr

Grain futures are mixed this morning ahead of new data on exports out this morning. Outside markets are also fairly quiet, waiting from the latest jobs report on Friday. Corn prices are trying to move higher after choppy trading overnight. July futures reversed higher Wednesday off its support line from the November rally, above key moving averages another dime below the market. (more)

Fed’s Fischer: No inflation? Then forget rate hike

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said that if inflation fails to take hold, the central bank will need to leave rates at their current low levels, delaying liftoff from the near-zero rates where they have remained for six years. (more)

In The Markets

Emini S&P (ES)

esz4

Market Comments: The upward trend still intact, and trending to new highs.

Gold (GGC)

ggcg5

Market Comments: WoW! What a week in gold, talk about volatility, I hope everyone survived it, and had correct risk parameters in place! Short term up, long term still trending down, looks like it might, just might make a pop to short term higher prices.

U.S. Dollar (DX-M)

dxmz4

Market Comments: Currently trading off its recent highs, and doing some back n’ fill action, still the up-trend is still very well intact at the current moment.

The Week Ahead

  • 12/9 – JOLTS 10:00AM ET
  • 12/10 – EIA Petroleum Report 10:30AM ET
  • 12/10 – Treasury Budget 2:00PM ET
  • 12/11 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
  • 12/11 – Retail Sales 8:30AM ET
  • 12/11 – Business Inventories 10:00AM ET
  • 12/12 – PPI-FD 8:30AM ET
  • 12/12 – Consumer Sentiment 9:55AM ET

Risk Disclosure

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE IN FUTURES TRADING BECAUSE OF SMALL MARGIN REQUIREMENTS. THIS LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU AND CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS LARGE GAINS.

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: The Rath Overlay

About Drew Rathgeber

Drew began his career at one of the nation’s largest physical spot bullion dealers in 2003. From there he made the transition into commodity futures in 2006. Because he has worked on both sides of the fence, ‘Spot’ and ‘Futures’, he has an astute understanding of how the precious metals markets can work for Retail Traders, Hedgers, and Commercials. He can use this knowledge to help investors and traders alike. Drew also has years of experience in electronic software execution, automated systems, hedging, newsletters, options strategies and outright futures contracts. Through his expertise in these areas, he can guide you and answer all of your questions while teaching you how to manage risk.

Today you can see Drew working in many different capacities in the commodity futures markets. You can even see his weekly IMA Live precious metals commentary every Tuesday and Thursday or sign-up for his weekly newsletter, the “Rath Overlay”, which highlights commodity futures markets and possible future events using his time-tested yet simple trading strategy.

Drew grew up near the popular surf beaches of Southern California. Drew is still an avid surfer and snowboarder. Currently his latest craze is United States Masters Swimming (USMS). He is a nationally ranked swimmer and enjoys competitive open water distance swimming.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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