China’s trade balance rose to a record surplus in November as imports were weaker than expected (signal of a weak domestic economy) and exports were weaker as well (signal of weak global economy). This, along with residual rate fear after Friday’s strong payroll report, is pressuring stock and commodity prices. There is no significant US data due today, leaving traders free to continue to ruminate about the effect that Friday’s NFP will have on Fed policy, especially with an FOMC report coming up on Dec. 17. There’s another bit of drama coming from Washington as Congress needs to pass a funding bill by Dec. 11 in order to avoid a government shutdown. Current conventional wisdom is that a bill we be passed to fund through February, when the new Congress will be in place. At that time Congressional Republicans may use the funding bill in order to counter President Obama on the immigration issue. A shutdown could cause problems for the stock market and the strong USD.
Dec. EMini S&P Futures: It’s on a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day signal and Friday was an NR4 day. For the day session I would consider shorting it if it’s below Friday’s low of 2068.50; on the upside watch the overnight triple top at 2070.75 as the first reference price and 2072.00 next.
Dec. EMini NASDAQ Futures: Breakout setup (ID, NR7). It’s trading below Friday’s low; watch 4295.25 as the next downside reference price. On the upside start with the 4305 area.
March T Bonds: Holding above 141-19 should help extend a rally; the next objective is 142-00 to 142-02. The 10 year T Notes are on a clear Buy day signal today.
March British Pound: TTT Buy day; holding above the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.5622 should help extend the rally.
Feb. Gold Futures: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day is anticipated; the 1200 area should be resistance.
March Cocoa: It’s on a TTT Sell Short day signal. I’d like to see a break in order to get long; watch support in the 2875 area.
March Sugar: Breakout setup; watch 15.15 as the first reference price for a downside breakout.
Jan. Soybeans: TTT Sell Short day- look to sell a break below the overnight low (1030-4)? 1023 would be the first downside target.
March Corn: Looking for a Sell Short day move, reference prices for it are 396-4 and 394-2.
Jan. Soymeal: Sell Short day; holding below the Fibonacci retracement level at 366.10 should encourage a selloff.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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