Early US economic data was disappointing as October durable goods orders were weak, ex-transportation and jobless claims were higher than expected. At 8:45 AM CT is the Chicago PMI for November which is forecast to be -3.0 to 63.2. At 9 AM CT is the Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index which is expected to be +0.6 to 90.0. The EIA releases its weekly reports today. At 9:30 AM is petroleum inventories; traders look for a gain of 500K barrels of crude last week. At 11 AM is the natural gas storage report; the estimate is for a withdrawal of 140 bcf last week. OPEC is meeting in Vienna and their communique is expected to be released around 9 AM tomorrow. It’s Thanksgiving Day but energies will be trading on Globex, so volatility is a definite possibility tomorrow.
It’s FND for Treasuries and metals tomorrow; I’ll be rolling over for the next STI.
Dec. eMini S&P Futures: Yesterday it had a breakout setup and closed with a doji and I would anticipate another “mean reversion” day- buy breaks and sell rallies. A break below 2065.00 could target yesterday’s low to 2061.50. I would be more cautious about the short side; the daily trend is up and it’s likely a matter of time before it breaks out to the upside again.
Dec. eMini Russell: Breakout setup (NR7, doji) although I think the odds are low for a breakout move today.
Dec. Yen: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell day, with resistance at 8522 (daily swing high) and 8536 (Fibonacci retracement level). Anticipate a TTT Sell Short day for Thursday / Friday.
Dec. Euro: Sell Short day. There’s resistance at 1.2514; watch the Tuesday high of 1.2489 as the reference price.
Dec. British Pound: It broke out above the recent double top at 1.5736. It’s also on a Sell Short day signal; I would consider shorting a break below the last intraday low of 1.5762- for a scalp only.
Dec. Silver: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day is anticipated. Watch 1646 (Fibonacci retracement level) as a pivot point on the downside.
March Cocoa: It’s a TTT Buy day and Tuesday was an inside day- could it make an upside breakout today? Consider buying a rally above 2878, playing for a breakout.
Jan. Crude Oil: It’s a “cover b.o. sales” / TTT Buy day. 73.71 is the Buy day reference price; we can also watch the 14 Nov. low of 73.22. The EIA inventory report is out at 9:30 AM; be ready for volatility after it.
Jan. Natural Gas: TTT Sell Short day. 4.444 is the reference price; we can also watch a Fibonacci retracement level at 4.422 as a pivot point. The weekly NG storage report is out at 11 AM CT; be alert for a potential breakout move after it.
Feb. Lean Hogs: TTT Buy day, 89.25 is the reference price. Be careful with longs- the trend is turning down.
Jan. Soybeans: It’s an “exit b.o. buys” / TTT Sell Short day. 1054-0 is the reference price. On the downside watch 1045-0 (overnight low and a Fib level) and then 1040-0.
March Wheat: It’s an exit breakout buys day today. On a further rally watch the 14 November high of 567-4 as a pivot point.
Dec. Soymeal: Another “exit b.o. buys” / TTT Sell Short day. Watch 375.80 as the reference price; I would also consider selling another break below the overnight low of 373.60.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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