Early US economic data was disappointing as October durable goods orders were weak, ex-transportation and jobless claims were higher than expected. At 8:45 AM CT is the Chicago PMI for November which is forecast to be -3.0 to 63.2. At 9 AM CT is the Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index which is expected to be +0.6 to 90.0. The EIA releases its weekly reports today. At 9:30 AM is petroleum inventories; traders look for a gain of 500K barrels of crude last week. At 11 AM is the natural gas storage report; the estimate is for a withdrawal of 140 bcf last week. OPEC is meeting in Vienna and their communique is expected to be released around 9 AM tomorrow. It’s Thanksgiving Day but energies will be trading on Globex, so volatility is a definite possibility tomorrow.
It’s FND for Treasuries and metals tomorrow; I’ll be rolling over for the next STI.
Dec. eMini S&P Futures: Yesterday it had a breakout setup and closed with a doji and I would anticipate another “mean reversion” day- buy breaks and sell rallies. A break below 2065.00 could target yesterday’s low to 2061.50. I would be more cautious about the short side; the daily trend is up and it’s likely a matter of time before it breaks out to the upside again.
Dec. eMini Russell: Breakout setup (NR7, doji) although I think the odds are low for a breakout move today.
Dec. Yen: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell day, with resistance at 8522 (daily swing high) and 8536 (Fibonacci retracement level). Anticipate a TTT Sell Short day for Thursday / Friday.
Dec. Euro: Sell Short day. There’s resistance at 1.2514; watch the Tuesday high of 1.2489 as the reference price.
Dec. British Pound: It broke out above the recent double top at 1.5736. It’s also on a Sell Short day signal; I would consider shorting a break below the last intraday low of 1.5762- for a scalp only.
Dec. Silver: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day is anticipated. Watch 1646 (Fibonacci retracement level) as a pivot point on the downside.
March Cocoa: It’s a TTT Buy day and Tuesday was an inside day- could it make an upside breakout today? Consider buying a rally above 2878, playing for a breakout.
Jan. Crude Oil: It’s a “cover b.o. sales” / TTT Buy day. 73.71 is the Buy day reference price; we can also watch the 14 Nov. low of 73.22. The EIA inventory report is out at 9:30 AM; be ready for volatility after it.
Jan. Natural Gas: TTT Sell Short day. 4.444 is the reference price; we can also watch a Fibonacci retracement level at 4.422 as a pivot point. The weekly NG storage report is out at 11 AM CT; be alert for a potential breakout move after it.
Feb. Lean Hogs: TTT Buy day, 89.25 is the reference price. Be careful with longs- the trend is turning down.
Jan. Soybeans: It’s an “exit b.o. buys” / TTT Sell Short day. 1054-0 is the reference price. On the downside watch 1045-0 (overnight low and a Fib level) and then 1040-0.
March Wheat: It’s an exit breakout buys day today. On a further rally watch the 14 November high of 567-4 as a pivot point.
Dec. Soymeal: Another “exit b.o. buys” / TTT Sell Short day. Watch 375.80 as the reference price; I would also consider selling another break below the overnight low of 373.60.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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